Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:45 PM ET · FirstBank Stadium
Alabama at Vanderbilt
The machine favors Alabama by 21.8 (the machine's margin) and gives it 91% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Alabama No. 2 and Vanderbilt No. 55, 24.3 points apart; Vanderbilt is at home. The widest gap on the field: Vanderbilt's yards per carry ranks No. 129 and Alabama's defense against it ranks No. 13, an edge to Alabama's defense.
When Alabama has the ball
Alabama's offense against Vanderbilt's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Alabama offense | Vanderbilt defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.4No. 16 | 29.4No. 110 | ALA offense |
| Yards per play | 6.5No. 28 | 5.7No. 86 | ALA offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.3No. 72 | 4.1No. 78 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.2No. 12 | 7.3No. 84 | ALA offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 14.9%No. 10 | 9.0%No. 50 | ALA offense |
When Vanderbilt has the ball
Vanderbilt's offense against Alabama's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Vanderbilt offense | Alabama defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.0No. 103 | 20.3No. 35 | ALA defense |
| Yards per play | 5.3No. 107 | 5.4No. 56 | ALA defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.3No. 129 | 3.0No. 13 | ALA defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.4No. 75 | 7.8No. 108 | VAN offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.5%No. 90 | 11.3%No. 106 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Alabama
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 2Vanderbilt red-zone td rate allowed: No. 124
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 3Vanderbilt giveaways: No. 126
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 10Vanderbilt explosive passes allowed: No. 50
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 125Vanderbilt sack rate (defense): No. 58
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 108Vanderbilt yards per pass attempt: No. 75
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 106Vanderbilt explosive pass rate: No. 90
Vanderbilt
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 50Alabama explosive pass rate: No. 10
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 58Alabama sacks allowed (rate): No. 125
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 64Alabama sack rate (defense): No. 20
Weak spots
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 129Alabama yards per carry allowed: No. 13
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 126Alabama takeaways: No. 3
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 124Alabama red-zone td rate: No. 2
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Alabama | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +921 forced, 12 lost | −78 forced, 15 lost |
| Third-down rate | 41.5%No. 54 | 38.4%No. 88 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.6%No. 31 | 42.5%No. 113 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 80.6%No. 2 | 60.7%No. 74 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.6%No. 66 | 71.4%No. 124 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 8.4%No. 125 | 5.1%No. 64 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.5%No. 20 | 6.2%No. 58 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Alabama by 17.5 on Nov 9, Alabama by 14 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 3.5 points toward Vanderbilt.
- Step by step: Alabama by 17.5 → Alabama by 16.5 → Alabama by 15.5 → Alabama by 17.5 → Alabama by 14.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Alabama by 21.8; the betting line is Alabama by 14.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 47°F, wind 8 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Alabama team page · Vanderbilt team page · All of this week's games