Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM ET · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
App State at Marshall
The machine favors App State by 0.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 51% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates App State No. 106 and Marshall No. 119, 3.0 points apart; Marshall is at home. The widest gap on the field: App State's explosive pass rate ranks No. 21 and Marshall's defense against it ranks No. 128, an edge to App State's offense.
When App State has the ball
App State's offense against Marshall's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | App State offense | Marshall defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.3No. 83 | 31.9No. 120 | APP offense |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 60 | 6.4No. 123 | APP offense |
| Yards per carry | 3.7No. 111 | 5.1No. 124 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.9No. 42 | 7.7No. 106 | APP offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 13.1%No. 21 | 13.2%No. 128 | APP offense |
When Marshall has the ball
Marshall's offense against App State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Marshall offense | App State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.3No. 106 | 24.4No. 67 | APP defense |
| Yards per play | 5.7No. 88 | 5.3No. 48 | APP defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.5No. 55 | 3.8No. 48 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.0No. 94 | 6.8No. 48 | APP defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.0%No. 57 | 8.1%No. 31 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
App State
Strengths
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 21Marshall explosive passes allowed: No. 128
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 31Marshall explosive pass rate: No. 57
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 42Marshall yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 106
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 122Marshall sacks allowed (rate): No. 73
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 113Marshall third-down rate allowed: No. 82
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 111Marshall yards per carry allowed: No. 124
Marshall
Strengths
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 55App State yards per carry allowed: No. 48
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 57App State explosive passes allowed: No. 31
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 68App State red-zone td rate: No. 48
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 136App State sacks allowed (rate): No. 67
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 133App State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 84
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 130App State takeaways: No. 47
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | App State | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −112 forced, 13 lost | −710 forced, 17 lost |
| Third-down rate | 34.8%No. 113 | 36.1%No. 101 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6%No. 59 | 39.5%No. 82 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 64.7%No. 48 | 41.2%No. 133 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.1%No. 84 | 58.6%No. 68 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.3%No. 67 | 5.7%No. 73 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 3.6%No. 122 | 2.3%No. 136 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- App State by 1.5 on Nov 9, App State by 1.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is App State by 0.5; the betting line is App State by 1.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 40°F, wind 5 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
App State team page · Marshall team page · All of this week's games