Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Baylor at BYU
The machine favors BYU by 4.7 (the machine's margin) and gives it 62% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates BYU No. 22 and Baylor No. 29, 2.2 points apart; BYU is at home. The widest gap on the field: Baylor's yards per play ranks No. 83 and BYU's defense against it ranks No. 13, an edge to BYU's defense.
When Baylor has the ball
Baylor's offense against BYU's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Baylor offense | BYU defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.9No. 45 | 19.8No. 31 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 83 | 4.6No. 13 | BYU defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.1No. 85 | 3.3No. 22 | BYU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.4No. 69 | 5.7No. 4 | BYU defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.4%No. 30 | 6.9%No. 10 | Even |
When BYU has the ball
BYU's offense against Baylor's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | BYU offense | Baylor defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0No. 49 | 17.0No. 18 | BAY defense |
| Yards per play | 6.4No. 33 | 4.8No. 19 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.9No. 36 | 3.1No. 17 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.1No. 33 | 6.3No. 27 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.2%No. 50 | 8.7%No. 40 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Baylor
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 4BYU sacks allowed (rate): No. 5
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 10BYU red-zone td rate: No. 67
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 13BYU giveaways: No. 75
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 93BYU red-zone td rate allowed: No. 106
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 85BYU yards per carry allowed: No. 22
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 83BYU yards per play allowed: No. 13
BYU
Strengths
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 4Baylor yards per pass attempt: No. 69
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 5Baylor sack rate (defense): No. 4
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 10Baylor explosive pass rate: No. 30
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 106Baylor red-zone td rate: No. 93
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 89Baylor third-down rate: No. 78
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 75Baylor takeaways: No. 13
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Baylor | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +516 forced, 11 lost | −111 forced, 12 lost |
| Third-down rate | 39.6%No. 78 | 50.9%No. 11 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.0%No. 34 | 40.2%No. 89 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 57.1%No. 93 | 61.5%No. 67 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.5%No. 10 | 66.7%No. 106 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.1%No. 59 | 1.9%No. 5 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 10.1%No. 4 | 5.7%No. 70 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- BYU by 7.5 on Nov 9, BYU by 7.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has not moved this week.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 6, before this game week, had BYU by 7. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is BYU by 4.7; the betting line is BYU by 7.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 44°F, wind 9 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.