Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Notre Dame Stadium
Boston College at Notre Dame
The machine favors Notre Dame by 29.3 (the machine's margin) and gives it 96% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Notre Dame No. 5 and Boston College No. 71, 26.8 points apart; Notre Dame is at home. The widest gap on the field: Boston College's points per game ranks No. 109 and Notre Dame's defense against it ranks No. 9, an edge to Notre Dame's defense.
When Boston College has the ball
Boston College's offense against Notre Dame's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Boston College offense | Notre Dame defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9No. 109 | 14.6No. 9 | ND defense |
| Yards per play | 5.6No. 91 | 4.5No. 12 | ND defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.5No. 52 | 2.9No. 11 | ND defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.0No. 91 | 6.3No. 31 | ND defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.1%No. 53 | 7.2%No. 12 | ND defense |
When Notre Dame has the ball
Notre Dame's offense against Boston College's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Notre Dame offense | Boston College defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.3No. 9 | 27.0No. 91 | ND offense |
| Yards per play | 6.5No. 25 | 5.2No. 40 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.0No. 33 | 4.0No. 63 | ND offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.2No. 31 | 6.8No. 49 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.1%No. 35 | 8.7%No. 41 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Boston College
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 19Notre Dame giveaways: No. 1
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 40Notre Dame yards per play: No. 25
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 41Notre Dame explosive pass rate: No. 35
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 130Notre Dame red-zone td rate allowed: No. 51
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 113Notre Dame sack rate (defense): No. 75
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 110Notre Dame takeaways: No. 9
Notre Dame
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 1Boston College sack rate (defense): No. 71
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 1Boston College takeaways: No. 19
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 9Boston College points per game: No. 109
Weak spots
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 76Boston College third-down rate: No. 92
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 75Boston College sacks allowed (rate): No. 113
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 51Boston College red-zone td rate: No. 130
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Boston College | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +115 forced, 14 lost | +1618 forced, 2 lost |
| Third-down rate | 37.4%No. 92 | 42.5%No. 46 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.3%No. 66 | 38.9%No. 76 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 43.3%No. 130 | 69.2%No. 32 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.2%No. 87 | 56.5%No. 51 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 7.6%No. 113 | 0.3%No. 1 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.7%No. 71 | 5.6%No. 75 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 2 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Notre Dame by 29.5 on Nov 9, Notre Dame by 29.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Notre Dame by 29.3; the betting line is Notre Dame by 29.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 45°F, wind 8 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Boston College team page · Notre Dame team page · All of this week's games