Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Chapman Stadium
Florida Atlantic at Tulsa
The machine favors Tulsa by 7.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 69% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Tulsa No. 81 and Florida Atlantic No. 101, 5.0 points apart; Tulsa is at home. The widest gap on the field: Tulsa's points per game ranks No. 34 and Florida Atlantic's defense against it ranks No. 134, an edge to Tulsa's offense.
When Florida Atlantic has the ball
Florida Atlantic's offense against Tulsa's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Florida Atlantic offense | Tulsa defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.2No. 8 | 22.8No. 51 | FAU offense |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 56 | 5.4No. 53 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.7No. 114 | 4.3No. 90 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.9No. 43 | 6.9No. 58 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.6%No. 88 | 8.2%No. 32 | TLSA defense |
When Tulsa has the ball
Tulsa's offense against Florida Atlantic's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Tulsa offense | Florida Atlantic defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.1No. 34 | 35.0No. 134 | TLSA offense |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 63 | 6.9No. 136 | TLSA offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.8No. 45 | 6.0No. 137 | TLSA offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.9No. 100 | 8.3No. 129 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.0%No. 82 | 13.1%No. 126 | TLSA offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Florida Atlantic
Strengths
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 8Tulsa points allowed per game: No. 51
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 8Tulsa third-down rate allowed: No. 68
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 23Tulsa sack rate (defense): No. 44
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 138Tulsa red-zone td rate: No. 23
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 137Tulsa yards per carry: No. 45
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 136Tulsa yards per play: No. 63
Tulsa
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 9Florida Atlantic takeaways: No. 39
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 12Florida Atlantic giveaways: No. 39
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 23Florida Atlantic red-zone td rate allowed: No. 138
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 114Florida Atlantic third-down rate allowed: No. 92
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 100Florida Atlantic yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 129
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 90Florida Atlantic yards per carry: No. 114
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +413 forced, 9 lost | +1217 forced, 5 lost |
| Third-down rate | 51.7%No. 8 | 34.7%No. 114 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.5%No. 92 | 38.3%No. 68 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60.0%No. 80 | 71.4%No. 23 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 82.1%No. 138 | 53.3%No. 37 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.5%No. 23 | 3.7%No. 28 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.2%No. 91 | 6.7%No. 44 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Tulsa by 5.5 on Nov 9, Tulsa by 5.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Tulsa by 7.5; the betting line is Tulsa by 5.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 54°F, wind 9 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Florida Atlantic in its second colour on the light page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Florida Atlantic team page · Tulsa team page · All of this week's games