Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:00 PM ET · Delaware Stadium
Florida International at Delaware
The machine favors Delaware by 4.6 (the machine's margin) and gives it 62% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Delaware No. 99 and Florida International No. 108, 2.2 points apart; Delaware is at home. The widest gap on the field: Delaware's yards per carry ranks No. 125 and Florida International's defense against it ranks No. 43, an edge to Florida International's defense.
When Florida International has the ball
Florida International's offense against Delaware's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Florida International offense | Delaware defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.3No. 128 | 29.1No. 106 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.5No. 100 | 6.0No. 104 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.9No. 99 | 4.2No. 79 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.1No. 86 | 7.5No. 90 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.8%No. 60 | 9.7%No. 62 | Even |
When Delaware has the ball
Delaware's offense against Florida International's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Delaware offense | Florida International defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.3No. 52 | 20.3No. 36 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.0No. 49 | 5.1No. 34 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.4No. 125 | 3.7No. 43 | FIU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.1No. 35 | 6.6No. 38 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 13.0%No. 22 | 10.0%No. 75 | DEL offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Florida International
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 3Delaware red-zone td rate: No. 29
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 24Delaware third-down rate: No. 106
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 31Delaware sack rate (defense): No. 62
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 138Delaware red-zone td rate allowed: No. 95
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 128Delaware points allowed per game: No. 106
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 100Delaware yards per play allowed: No. 104
Delaware
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 21Florida International giveaways: No. 94
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 22Florida International explosive passes allowed: No. 75
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 29Florida International red-zone td rate allowed: No. 3
Weak spots
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 125Florida International yards per carry allowed: No. 43
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 106Florida International third-down rate allowed: No. 24
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 106Florida International points per game: No. 128
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Florida International | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −310 forced, 13 lost | +415 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 43.0%No. 41 | 35.3%No. 106 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.9%No. 24 | 38.9%No. 75 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 24.1%No. 138 | 69.7%No. 29 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 32.1%No. 3 | 63.9%No. 95 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.8%No. 31 | 6.8%No. 101 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.6%No. 74 | 6.0%No. 62 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Delaware by 5.5 on Nov 9, Delaware by 3.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 2 points toward Florida International.
- Step by step: Delaware by 5.5 → Delaware by 4.5 → Delaware by 3.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Delaware by 4.6; the betting line is Delaware by 3.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 46°F, wind 11 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Florida International team page · Delaware team page · All of this week's games