Week 11 · Friday, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
Florida State at Pittsburgh
The machine favors Florida State by 2.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 54% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Florida State No. 32 and Pittsburgh No. 45, 4.5 points apart; Pittsburgh is at home. The widest gap on the field: Florida State's explosive pass rate ranks No. 3 and Pittsburgh's defense against it ranks No. 87, an edge to Florida State's offense.
When Florida State has the ball
Florida State's offense against Pittsburgh's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Florida State offense | Pittsburgh defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.7No. 51 | 19.8No. 32 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.3No. 36 | 5.1No. 36 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.5No. 54 | 2.3No. 2 | PITT defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.8No. 17 | 7.5No. 96 | FSU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 16.4%No. 3 | 10.2%No. 87 | FSU offense |
When Pittsburgh has the ball
Pittsburgh's offense against Florida State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Pittsburgh offense | Florida State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.9No. 46 | 28.3No. 102 | PITT offense |
| Yards per play | 6.2No. 41 | 6.0No. 109 | PITT offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.5No. 59 | 4.7No. 103 | PITT offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.8No. 48 | 7.5No. 91 | PITT offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.1%No. 55 | 10.4%No. 92 | PITT offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Florida State
Strengths
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 3Pittsburgh explosive passes allowed: No. 87
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 17Pittsburgh yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 96
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 21Pittsburgh sacks allowed (rate): No. 20
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 122Pittsburgh sack rate (defense): No. 76
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 118Pittsburgh takeaways: No. 45
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 116Pittsburgh giveaways: No. 67
Pittsburgh
Strengths
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 2Florida State yards per carry: No. 54
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 20Florida State sack rate (defense): No. 21
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 32Florida State points per game: No. 51
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 107Florida State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 67
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 96Florida State yards per pass attempt: No. 17
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 87Florida State explosive pass rate: No. 3
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Florida State | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −78 forced, 15 lost | +213 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 41.2%No. 55 | 40.8%No. 61 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.9%No. 106 | 34.9%No. 39 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 72.2%No. 21 | 52.9%No. 107 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.6%No. 67 | 55.6%No. 50 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 8.2%No. 122 | 3.1%No. 20 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.5%No. 21 | 5.6%No. 76 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Pittsburgh by 3.5 on Nov 9, Pittsburgh by 3.5 at the last pull before kickoff (Nov 12).
- It did not move that week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Florida State by 2.0; the betting line closed at Pittsburgh by 3.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 35°F, wind 4 mph, no rain or snow.
- Starting quarterback (as of Nov 13): M. Heintschel, Pittsburgh's starting quarterback, has been out since Oct 4. The machine's number already counts it.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Florida State team page · Pittsburgh team page · All of this week's games