Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Fresno State at Texas State
The machine favors Texas State by 5.8 (the machine's margin) and gives it 65% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Texas State No. 64 and Fresno State No. 72, 3.3 points apart; Texas State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Texas State's yards per carry ranks No. 5 and Fresno State's defense against it ranks No. 91, an edge to Texas State's offense.
When Fresno State has the ball
Fresno State's offense against Texas State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Fresno State offense | Texas State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.8No. 79 | 30.8No. 115 | FRES offense |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 75 | 5.5No. 69 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.1No. 87 | 3.4No. 28 | TXST defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.6No. 62 | 7.1No. 69 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.2%No. 51 | 8.9%No. 46 | Even |
When Texas State has the ball
Texas State's offense against Fresno State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Texas State offense | Fresno State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.6No. 11 | 20.6No. 38 | Even |
| Yards per play | 7.0No. 10 | 5.7No. 85 | TXST offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.8No. 5 | 4.4No. 91 | TXST offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.6No. 21 | 7.1No. 67 | TXST offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.9%No. 23 | 9.8%No. 67 | TXST offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Fresno State
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 8Texas State takeaways: No. 108
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 14Texas State red-zone td rate: No. 55
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 28Texas State giveaways: No. 103
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 102Texas State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 121
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 98Texas State third-down rate allowed: No. 90
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 91Texas State yards per carry: No. 5
Texas State
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 2Fresno State third-down rate allowed: No. 48
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 5Fresno State yards per carry allowed: No. 91
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 10Fresno State yards per play allowed: No. 85
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 134Fresno State sacks allowed (rate): No. 65
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 121Fresno State red-zone td rate: No. 102
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 115Fresno State points per game: No. 79
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Fresno State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +914 forced, 5 lost | −49 forced, 13 lost |
| Third-down rate | 36.7%No. 98 | 55.0%No. 2 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8%No. 48 | 40.2%No. 90 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 54.5%No. 102 | 64.1%No. 55 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.5%No. 14 | 71.1%No. 121 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.2%No. 65 | 3.3%No. 21 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 6.1%No. 59 | 2.4%No. 134 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Texas State by 9.5 on Nov 9, Texas State by 9.5 now (Nov 12).
- It is back where it started this week, after moving in between.
- Step by step: Texas State by 9.5 → Texas State by 10 → Texas State by 9.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Texas State by 5.8; the betting line is Texas State by 9.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 70°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Fresno State team page · Texas State team page · All of this week's games