Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Center Parc Stadium
Georgia Southern at Georgia State
The machine favors Georgia Southern by 0.8 (the machine's margin) and gives it 51% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Georgia Southern No. 79 and Georgia State No. 95, 3.3 points apart; Georgia State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Georgia State's explosive pass rate ranks No. 24 and Georgia Southern's defense against it ranks No. 90, an edge to Georgia State's offense.
When Georgia Southern has the ball
Georgia Southern's offense against Georgia State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Georgia Southern offense | Georgia State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.6No. 80 | 26.2No. 83 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.0No. 52 | 5.8No. 91 | GASO offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.2No. 78 | 4.1No. 75 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.1No. 87 | 7.5No. 92 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.9%No. 102 | 11.6%No. 113 | Even |
When Georgia State has the ball
Georgia State's offense against Georgia Southern's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Georgia State offense | Georgia Southern defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.4No. 26 | 19.7No. 30 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.4No. 34 | 5.3No. 45 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.3No. 16 | 3.7No. 44 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 55 | 6.9No. 54 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.7%No. 24 | 10.3%No. 90 | GAST offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Georgia Southern
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 7Georgia State sack rate (defense): No. 31
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 20Georgia State takeaways: No. 51
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 24Georgia State sacks allowed (rate): No. 51
Weak spots
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 102Georgia State explosive passes allowed: No. 113
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 90Georgia State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 59
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 90Georgia State explosive pass rate: No. 24
Georgia State
Strengths
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 6Georgia Southern third-down rate: No. 64
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 16Georgia Southern yards per carry allowed: No. 44
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 24Georgia Southern explosive passes allowed: No. 90
Weak spots
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 113Georgia Southern explosive pass rate: No. 102
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 95Georgia Southern takeaways: No. 29
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 95Georgia Southern red-zone td rate allowed: No. 27
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +714 forced, 7 lost | −112 forced, 13 lost |
| Third-down rate | 40.5%No. 64 | 44.3%No. 33 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.9%No. 25 | 29.1%No. 6 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 58.1%No. 90 | 56.8%No. 95 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.8%No. 27 | 57.6%No. 59 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 2.2%No. 7 | 4.7%No. 51 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.4%No. 24 | 7.2%No. 31 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 2 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Georgia Southern by 5.5 on Nov 9, Georgia Southern by 6 now (Nov 12).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward Georgia Southern.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Georgia Southern by 0.8; the betting line is Georgia Southern by 6.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 51°F, wind 11 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Georgia Southern in its second colour on both pages, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Georgia Southern team page · Georgia State team page · All of this week's games