Week 11 · Friday, Nov 13 · 10:15 PM ET · Folsom Field
Houston at Colorado
The machine favors Houston by 6.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 66% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Houston No. 38 and Colorado No. 65, 9.0 points apart; Colorado is at home. The widest gap on the field: Houston's explosive pass rate ranks No. 28 and Colorado's defense against it ranks No. 123, an edge to Houston's offense.
When Houston has the ball
Houston's offense against Colorado's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Houston offense | Colorado defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.4No. 22 | 28.3No. 101 | HOU offense |
| Yards per play | 6.8No. 11 | 5.4No. 57 | HOU offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.2No. 24 | 3.5No. 30 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.9No. 16 | 7.5No. 89 | HOU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.5%No. 28 | 12.8%No. 123 | HOU offense |
When Colorado has the ball
Colorado's offense against Houston's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Colorado offense | Houston defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.8No. 124 | 21.3No. 41 | HOU defense |
| Yards per play | 5.7No. 87 | 5.9No. 102 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.7No. 113 | 3.8No. 49 | HOU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 53 | 7.8No. 110 | COLO offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.5%No. 45 | 10.1%No. 81 | COLO offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Houston
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 1Colorado third-down rate allowed: No. 73
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 10Colorado takeaways: No. 124
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 11Colorado yards per play allowed: No. 57
Weak spots
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 110Colorado yards per pass attempt: No. 53
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 108Colorado sacks allowed (rate): No. 85
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 102Colorado yards per play: No. 87
Colorado
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 17Houston red-zone td rate: No. 53
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 30Houston yards per carry: No. 24
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 36Houston sacks allowed (rate): No. 17
Weak spots
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 135Houston takeaways: No. 40
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 124Houston points allowed per game: No. 41
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 124Houston giveaways: No. 10
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Houston | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +713 forced, 6 lost | −117 forced, 18 lost |
| Third-down rate | 59.3%No. 1 | 37.4%No. 93 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.9%No. 96 | 38.8%No. 73 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 64.4%No. 53 | 60.0%No. 79 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.0%No. 96 | 45.0%No. 17 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.0%No. 17 | 6.1%No. 85 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.2%No. 108 | 7.0%No. 36 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 6 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Houston by 10 on Nov 9, Houston by 7.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 2.5 points toward Colorado.
- Step by step: Houston by 10 → Houston by 9.5 → Houston by 8.5 → Houston by 7.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Houston by 6.5; the betting line is Houston by 7.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 50°F, wind 3 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Houston team page · Colorado team page · All of this week's games