Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky
The machine favors Jacksonville State by 8.3 (the machine's margin) and gives it 70% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Jacksonville State No. 84 and Western Kentucky No. 124, 10.8 points apart; Western Kentucky is at home. The widest gap on the field: Jacksonville State's yards per play ranks No. 20 and Western Kentucky's defense against it ranks No. 124, an edge to Jacksonville State's offense.
When Jacksonville State has the ball
Jacksonville State's offense against Western Kentucky's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Jacksonville State offense | Western Kentucky defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.1No. 63 | 33.3No. 126 | JXST offense |
| Yards per play | 6.6No. 20 | 6.4No. 124 | JXST offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.0No. 31 | 5.4No. 134 | JXST offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.5No. 22 | 7.2No. 76 | JXST offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.9%No. 38 | 9.6%No. 61 | Even |
When Western Kentucky has the ball
Western Kentucky's offense against Jacksonville State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Western Kentucky offense | Jacksonville State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.6No. 102 | 19.2No. 24 | JXST defense |
| Yards per play | 5.4No. 106 | 5.2No. 39 | JXST defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 71 | 4.3No. 87 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.2No. 128 | 6.3No. 29 | JXST defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.6%No. 89 | 6.2%No. 6 | JXST defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Jacksonville State
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 6Western Kentucky explosive pass rate: No. 89
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 20Western Kentucky yards per play allowed: No. 124
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 22Western Kentucky yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 76
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 126Western Kentucky giveaways: No. 89
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 116Western Kentucky third-down rate: No. 72
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 111Western Kentucky red-zone td rate allowed: No. 133
Western Kentucky
Strengths
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 51Jacksonville State third-down rate: No. 30
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 52Jacksonville State sack rate (defense): No. 98
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 54Jacksonville State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 45
Weak spots
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 134Jacksonville State yards per carry: No. 31
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 133Jacksonville State red-zone td rate: No. 111
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 131Jacksonville State giveaways: No. 78
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −57 forced, 12 lost | −57 forced, 12 lost |
| Third-down rate | 45.0%No. 30 | 40.1%No. 72 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0%No. 116 | 36.0%No. 51 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 51.5%No. 111 | 64.3%No. 54 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.5%No. 45 | 77.8%No. 133 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.6%No. 25 | 4.7%No. 52 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.6%No. 98 | 3.4%No. 126 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Jacksonville State by 7.5 on Nov 9, Jacksonville State by 7.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Jacksonville State by 8.3; the betting line is Jacksonville State by 7.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 48°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Jacksonville State team page · Western Kentucky team page · All of this week's games