Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
James Madison at UConn
The machine favors James Madison by 8.2 (the machine's margin) and gives it 69% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates James Madison No. 51 and UConn No. 92, 10.6 points apart; UConn is at home. The widest gap on the field: James Madison's points per game ranks No. 7 and UConn's defense against it ranks No. 88, an edge to James Madison's offense.
When James Madison has the ball
James Madison's offense against UConn's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | James Madison offense | UConn defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.6No. 7 | 26.7No. 88 | JMU offense |
| Yards per play | 6.6No. 19 | 5.5No. 66 | JMU offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.2No. 25 | 3.8No. 52 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.1No. 36 | 7.2No. 75 | JMU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.8%No. 61 | 9.8%No. 71 | Even |
When UConn has the ball
UConn's offense against James Madison's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | UConn offense | James Madison defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9No. 38 | 19.3No. 27 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.8No. 14 | 5.0No. 29 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.2No. 27 | 3.2No. 19 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.8No. 18 | 6.7No. 42 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 15.1%No. 8 | 9.2%No. 54 | CONN offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
James Madison
Strengths
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 7UConn points allowed per game: No. 88
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 19UConn yards per carry: No. 27
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 19UConn sack rate (defense): No. 107
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 96UConn third-down rate allowed: No. 107
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 64UConn takeaways: No. 121
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 61UConn explosive passes allowed: No. 71
UConn
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 6James Madison red-zone td rate allowed: No. 38
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 8James Madison explosive passes allowed: No. 54
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 14James Madison yards per play allowed: No. 29
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 126James Madison sack rate (defense): No. 34
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 121James Madison giveaways: No. 64
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 118James Madison red-zone td rate: No. 27
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | James Madison | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +213 forced, 11 lost | −28 forced, 10 lost |
| Third-down rate | 36.8%No. 96 | 41.1%No. 56 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.3%No. 41 | 41.9%No. 107 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 70.0%No. 27 | 78.6%No. 6 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.6%No. 38 | 68.8%No. 118 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.1%No. 19 | 8.4%No. 126 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.1%No. 34 | 4.3%No. 107 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- James Madison by 4 on Nov 9, James Madison by 4.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward James Madison.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is James Madison by 8.2; the betting line is James Madison by 4.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 43°F, wind 8 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
James Madison team page · UConn team page · All of this week's games