Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 5:30 PM ET · Milan Puskar Stadium
Kansas at West Virginia
The machine favors Kansas by 1.2 (the machine's margin) and gives it 52% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Kansas No. 46 and West Virginia No. 59, 3.7 points apart; West Virginia is at home. The widest gap on the field: Kansas's explosive pass rate ranks No. 6 and West Virginia's defense against it ranks No. 137, an edge to Kansas's offense.
When Kansas has the ball
Kansas's offense against West Virginia's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Kansas offense | West Virginia defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.4No. 58 | 34.6No. 131 | KU offense |
| Yards per play | 6.1No. 45 | 7.2No. 137 | KU offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.7No. 47 | 4.7No. 109 | KU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.9No. 44 | 10.1No. 137 | KU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 15.8%No. 6 | 16.9%No. 137 | KU offense |
When West Virginia has the ball
West Virginia's offense against Kansas's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | West Virginia offense | Kansas defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.2No. 17 | 24.8No. 70 | WVU offense |
| Yards per play | 6.5No. 26 | 5.5No. 59 | WVU offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.8No. 46 | 4.3No. 88 | WVU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 10.8No. 1 | 6.8No. 50 | WVU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 20.1%No. 1 | 10.1%No. 83 | WVU offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Kansas
Strengths
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 6West Virginia explosive passes allowed: No. 137
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 24West Virginia red-zone td rate: No. 33
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 24West Virginia sack rate (defense): No. 77
Weak spots
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 119West Virginia takeaways: No. 91
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 97West Virginia third-down rate allowed: No. 110
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 88West Virginia yards per carry: No. 46
West Virginia
Strengths
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 1Kansas explosive passes allowed: No. 83
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 1Kansas yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 50
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 17Kansas points allowed per game: No. 70
Weak spots
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 137Kansas yards per play: No. 45
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 137Kansas yards per pass attempt: No. 44
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 137Kansas explosive pass rate: No. 6
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Kansas | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −510 forced, 15 lost | +210 forced, 8 lost |
| Third-down rate | 36.8%No. 97 | 47.8%No. 19 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%No. 28 | 42.1%No. 110 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 64.7%No. 49 | 69.0%No. 33 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.9%No. 24 | 58.8%No. 71 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.5%No. 24 | 7.7%No. 115 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.4%No. 84 | 5.6%No. 77 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- West Virginia by 3 on Nov 9, West Virginia by 2.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward Kansas.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Kansas by 1.2; the betting line is West Virginia by 2.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 40°F, wind 9 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Kansas team page · West Virginia team page · All of this week's games