Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 2:00 PM ET · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Kansas State at TCU
The machine favors TCU by 9.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 73% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates TCU No. 43 and Kansas State No. 66, 7.0 points apart; TCU is at home. The widest gap on the field: Kansas State's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 112 and TCU's defense against it ranks No. 35, an edge to TCU's defense.
When Kansas State has the ball
Kansas State's offense against TCU's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Kansas State offense | TCU defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.3No. 47 | 15.8No. 12 | TCU defense |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 69 | 4.8No. 22 | TCU defense |
| Yards per carry | 5.2No. 26 | 3.3No. 24 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.5No. 112 | 6.5No. 35 | TCU defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.8%No. 106 | 9.4%No. 59 | TCU defense |
When TCU has the ball
TCU's offense against Kansas State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | TCU offense | Kansas State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.8No. 100 | 26.8No. 89 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 73 | 5.7No. 88 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.4No. 127 | 4.6No. 97 | KSU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.8No. 49 | 7.2No. 70 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.9%No. 58 | 10.3%No. 91 | TCU offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Kansas State
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 7TCU third-down rate allowed: No. 23
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 17TCU sacks allowed (rate): No. 100
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 26TCU yards per carry allowed: No. 24
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 132TCU red-zone td rate: No. 82
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 127TCU giveaways: No. 123
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 112TCU yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 35
TCU
Strengths
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 12Kansas State points per game: No. 47
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 21Kansas State red-zone td rate: No. 88
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 22Kansas State yards per play: No. 69
Weak spots
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 127Kansas State yards per carry allowed: No. 97
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 123Kansas State takeaways: No. 127
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 100Kansas State sack rate (defense): No. 17
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Kansas State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −27 forced, 9 lost | −312 forced, 15 lost |
| Third-down rate | 51.9%No. 7 | 43.4%No. 39 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.1%No. 58 | 31.8%No. 23 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 58.5%No. 88 | 59.4%No. 82 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.0%No. 132 | 46.2%No. 21 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.6%No. 26 | 6.7%No. 100 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.8%No. 17 | 5.8%No. 69 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 6 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- TCU by 9.5 on Nov 9, TCU by 12.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 3 points toward TCU.
- Step by step: TCU by 9.5 → TCU by 10 → TCU by 10.5 → TCU by 11.5 → TCU by 12.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is TCU by 9.5; the betting line is TCU by 12.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 63°F, wind 12 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Kansas State in its second colour on both pages, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Kansas State team page · TCU team page · All of this week's games