Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 2:00 PM ET · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Kennesaw State at Sam Houston
The machine favors Kennesaw State by 7.7 (the machine's margin) and gives it 68% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Kennesaw State No. 113 and Sam Houston No. 134, 10.2 points apart; Sam Houston is at home. The widest gap on the field: Kennesaw State's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 99 and Sam Houston's defense against it ranks No. 20, an edge to Sam Houston's defense.
When Kennesaw State has the ball
Kennesaw State's offense against Sam Houston's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Kennesaw State offense | Sam Houston defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.1No. 91 | 27.6No. 99 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.6No. 92 | 5.5No. 73 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.2No. 79 | 5.0No. 119 | KENN offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.9No. 99 | 6.1No. 20 | SHSU defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.5%No. 112 | 9.0%No. 49 | SHSU defense |
When Sam Houston has the ball
Sam Houston's offense against Kennesaw State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Sam Houston offense | Kennesaw State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.6No. 132 | 27.0No. 92 | KENN defense |
| Yards per play | 5.2No. 119 | 5.7No. 81 | KENN defense |
| Yards per carry | 2.7No. 137 | 4.2No. 80 | KENN defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.0No. 95 | 7.1No. 68 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 7.6%No. 126 | 9.8%No. 68 | KENN defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Kennesaw State
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 32Sam Houston sack rate (defense): No. 95
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 66Sam Houston third-down rate allowed: No. 13
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 67Sam Houston giveaways: No. 44
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 133Sam Houston sacks allowed (rate): No. 99
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 112Sam Houston explosive passes allowed: No. 49
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 110Sam Houston red-zone td rate: No. 121
Sam Houston
Strengths
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 13Kennesaw State third-down rate: No. 66
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 20Kennesaw State yards per pass attempt: No. 99
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 44Kennesaw State takeaways: No. 67
Weak spots
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 137Kennesaw State yards per carry allowed: No. 80
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 132Kennesaw State points allowed per game: No. 92
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 126Kennesaw State explosive passes allowed: No. 68
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −111 forced, 12 lost | 09 forced, 9 lost |
| Third-down rate | 40.3%No. 66 | 33.1%No. 122 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.5%No. 93 | 30.4%No. 13 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 54.8%No. 101 | 47.4%No. 121 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%No. 110 | 72.0%No. 126 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.8%No. 32 | 6.7%No. 99 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 2.5%No. 133 | 4.9%No. 95 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Kennesaw State by 8.5 on Nov 9, Kennesaw State by 7 now (Nov 12).
- It has moved 1.5 points toward Sam Houston.
- Step by step: Kennesaw State by 8.5 → Kennesaw State by 7.5 → Kennesaw State by 7.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Kennesaw State by 7.7; the betting line is Kennesaw State by 7.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 66°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Kennesaw State team page · Sam Houston team page · All of this week's games