Week 11 · Thursday, Nov 12 · 9:00 PM ET · Malone Stadium
Louisiana at UL Monroe
Final: Louisiana 42, UL Monroe 21. The machine had the winner.
Had the winnerThe machine favors Louisiana by 14.8 (the machine's margin) and gives it 82% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Louisiana No. 88 and UL Monroe No. 135, 17.3 points apart; UL Monroe is at home. The widest gap on the field: UL Monroe's explosive pass rate ranks No. 136 and Louisiana's defense against it ranks No. 7, an edge to Louisiana's defense.
When Louisiana has the ball
Louisiana's offense against UL Monroe's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Louisiana offense | UL Monroe defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.9No. 57 | 34.8No. 133 | UL offense |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 67 | 6.3No. 120 | UL offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.8No. 43 | 5.1No. 125 | UL offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 56 | 7.9No. 118 | UL offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.1%No. 54 | 10.1%No. 85 | UL offense |
When UL Monroe has the ball
UL Monroe's offense against Louisiana's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | UL Monroe offense | Louisiana defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.1No. 120 | 21.8No. 44 | UL defense |
| Yards per play | 5.1No. 121 | 5.3No. 46 | UL defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.9No. 102 | 4.2No. 81 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.5No. 115 | 6.2No. 23 | UL defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 6.1%No. 136 | 6.2%No. 7 | UL defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Louisiana
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 4UL Monroe red-zone td rate allowed: No. 80
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 7UL Monroe explosive pass rate: No. 136
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 15UL Monroe giveaways: No. 106
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 128UL Monroe red-zone td rate: No. 68
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 109UL Monroe sacks allowed (rate): No. 79
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 83UL Monroe sack rate (defense): No. 56
UL Monroe
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 56Louisiana sacks allowed (rate): No. 83
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 68Louisiana red-zone td rate allowed: No. 128
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 79Louisiana sack rate (defense): No. 109
Weak spots
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 136Louisiana explosive passes allowed: No. 7
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 133Louisiana points per game: No. 57
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 125Louisiana yards per carry: No. 43
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Louisiana | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +416 forced, 12 lost | −58 forced, 13 lost |
| Third-down rate | 43.6%No. 38 | 34.9%No. 112 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.3%No. 67 | 43.6%No. 119 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 79.3%No. 4 | 61.5%No. 68 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.7%No. 128 | 60.0%No. 80 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 6.0%No. 83 | 5.8%No. 79 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.2%No. 109 | 6.2%No. 56 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Louisiana by 11.5 on Nov 9, Louisiana by 10 at the last pull before kickoff (Nov 12).
- It moved 1.5 points toward UL Monroe.
- Step by step: Louisiana by 11.5 → Louisiana by 10.5 → Louisiana by 10.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Louisiana by 14.8; the betting line closed at Louisiana by 10.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Weather at kickoff (as of Nov 13): 56°F, wind 1 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Louisiana team page · UL Monroe team page · All of this week's games