Week 11 · Thursday, Nov 12 · 8:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
Memphis at South Florida
Final: Memphis 52, South Florida 41. The machine had the winner.
Had the winnerThe machine favors Memphis by 4.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 60% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Memphis No. 57 and South Florida No. 83, 6.5 points apart; South Florida is at home. The widest gap on the field: South Florida's yards per carry ranks No. 74 and Memphis's defense against it ranks No. 116, an edge to South Florida's offense.
When Memphis has the ball
Memphis's offense against South Florida's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Memphis offense | South Florida defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.6No. 14 | 15.1No. 10 | Even |
| Yards per play | 7.3No. 7 | 4.9No. 25 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.4No. 11 | 3.6No. 40 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.6No. 7 | 6.3No. 32 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.5%No. 29 | 7.1%No. 11 | Even |
When South Florida has the ball
South Florida's offense against Memphis's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | South Florida offense | Memphis defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.9No. 88 | 23.6No. 59 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.5No. 102 | 5.9No. 103 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.3No. 74 | 4.9No. 116 | USF offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.0No. 96 | 7.3No. 79 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.2%No. 121 | 11.5%No. 110 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Memphis
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 7South Florida giveaways: No. 4
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 7South Florida yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 32
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 7South Florida yards per play allowed: No. 25
Weak spots
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 116South Florida yards per carry: No. 74
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 110South Florida explosive pass rate: No. 121
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 103South Florida yards per play: No. 102
South Florida
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 4Memphis takeaways: No. 7
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 5Memphis red-zone td rate: No. 69
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 10Memphis points per game: No. 14
Weak spots
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 121Memphis explosive passes allowed: No. 110
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 110Memphis sack rate (defense): No. 15
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 102Memphis yards per play allowed: No. 103
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Memphis | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +518 forced, 13 lost | +610 forced, 4 lost |
| Third-down rate | 46.4%No. 22 | 37.3%No. 94 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.8%No. 15 | 35.7%No. 47 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 61.4%No. 69 | 59.3%No. 83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.6%No. 69 | 33.3%No. 5 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 4.3%No. 44 | 7.4%No. 110 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.9%No. 15 | 7.5%No. 22 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Memphis by 4.5 on Nov 9, Memphis by 4 at the last pull before kickoff (Nov 12).
- It moved 0.5 points toward South Florida.
- Step by step: Memphis by 4.5 → Memphis by 3.5 → Memphis by 4.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Memphis by 4.0; the betting line closed at Memphis by 4.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Weather at kickoff (as of Nov 13): 71°F, wind 4 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Memphis team page · South Florida team page · All of this week's games