Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Williams Stadium (VA)
Middle Tennessee at Liberty
The machine favors Liberty by 23.8 (the machine's margin) and gives it 93% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Liberty No. 52 and Middle Tennessee No. 128, 21.4 points apart; Liberty is at home. The widest gap on the field: Middle Tennessee's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 124 and Liberty's defense against it ranks No. 13, an edge to Liberty's defense.
When Middle Tennessee has the ball
Middle Tennessee's offense against Liberty's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Middle Tennessee offense | Liberty defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.9No. 78 | 13.6No. 6 | LIB defense |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 81 | 4.8No. 20 | LIB defense |
| Yards per carry | 5.1No. 28 | 3.5No. 32 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.3No. 124 | 6.0No. 13 | LIB defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.3%No. 117 | 7.5%No. 19 | LIB defense |
When Liberty has the ball
Liberty's offense against Middle Tennessee's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Liberty offense | Middle Tennessee defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.3No. 33 | 31.0No. 117 | LIB offense |
| Yards per play | 6.5No. 27 | 6.6No. 129 | LIB offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.9No. 38 | 5.4No. 131 | LIB offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.2No. 13 | 8.0No. 120 | LIB offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 13.6%No. 19 | 13.1%No. 127 | LIB offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Middle Tennessee
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 15Liberty takeaways: No. 30
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 16Liberty sack rate (defense): No. 60
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 28Liberty yards per carry allowed: No. 32
Weak spots
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 131Liberty yards per carry: No. 38
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 129Liberty yards per play: No. 27
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 127Liberty explosive pass rate: No. 19
Liberty
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 2Middle Tennessee red-zone td rate: No. 42
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 6Middle Tennessee points per game: No. 78
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 13Middle Tennessee yards per pass attempt: No. 124
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 87Middle Tennessee sack rate (defense): No. 113
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 60Middle Tennessee sacks allowed (rate): No. 16
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 41Middle Tennessee red-zone td rate allowed: No. 117
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +612 forced, 6 lost | +814 forced, 6 lost |
| Third-down rate | 34.2%No. 117 | 45.2%No. 29 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.6%No. 84 | 31.5%No. 17 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 66.7%No. 42 | 66.7%No. 41 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.8%No. 117 | 29.4%No. 2 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 2.9%No. 16 | 6.1%No. 87 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.0%No. 113 | 6.1%No. 60 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Liberty by 21.5 on Nov 9, Liberty by 21 now (Nov 12).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward Middle Tennessee.
- Step by step: Liberty by 21.5 → Liberty by 20.5 → Liberty by 21.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Liberty by 23.8; the betting line is Liberty by 21.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 49°F, wind 14 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Middle Tennessee team page · Liberty team page · All of this week's games