Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:30 PM ET · SHI Stadium
Nebraska at Rutgers
The machine favors Nebraska by 14.9 (the machine's margin) and gives it 82% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Nebraska No. 23 and Rutgers No. 87, 17.3 points apart; Rutgers is at home. The widest gap on the field: Nebraska's yards per carry ranks No. 32 and Rutgers's defense against it ranks No. 132, an edge to Nebraska's offense.
When Nebraska has the ball
Nebraska's offense against Rutgers's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Nebraska offense | Rutgers defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.2No. 54 | 32.4No. 124 | NEB offense |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 59 | 6.7No. 131 | NEB offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.0No. 32 | 5.4No. 132 | NEB offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.7No. 105 | 8.3No. 131 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.9%No. 104 | 10.5%No. 95 | Even |
When Rutgers has the ball
Rutgers's offense against Nebraska's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Rutgers offense | Nebraska defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.8No. 90 | 16.6No. 17 | NEB defense |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 71 | 4.7No. 17 | NEB defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.0No. 96 | 3.1No. 18 | NEB defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.0No. 41 | 6.2No. 24 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.1%No. 77 | 9.0%No. 48 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Nebraska
Strengths
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 1Rutgers third-down rate: No. 85
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 5Rutgers red-zone td rate allowed: No. 102
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 9Rutgers red-zone td rate: No. 52
Weak spots
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 105Rutgers yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 131
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 104Rutgers explosive passes allowed: No. 95
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 84Rutgers giveaways: No. 113
Rutgers
Strengths
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 41Nebraska yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 24
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 52Nebraska red-zone td rate allowed: No. 9
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 71Nebraska yards per play allowed: No. 17
Weak spots
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 132Nebraska yards per carry: No. 32
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 131Nebraska yards per play: No. 59
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 131Nebraska yards per pass attempt: No. 105
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Nebraska | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +310 forced, 7 lost | −68 forced, 14 lost |
| Third-down rate | 49.2%No. 16 | 38.9%No. 85 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.4%No. 1 | 47.2%No. 128 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 79.3%No. 5 | 64.5%No. 52 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.1%No. 9 | 65.0%No. 102 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.0%No. 58 | 8.2%No. 124 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.0%No. 39 | 4.7%No. 97 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 7 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Nebraska by 13.5 on Nov 9, Nebraska by 15.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 2 points toward Nebraska.
- Step by step: Nebraska by 13.5 → Nebraska by 14.5 → Nebraska by 15.5 → Nebraska by 14.5 → Nebraska by 15.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Nebraska by 14.9; the betting line is Nebraska by 15.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 42°F, wind 9 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Nebraska in its second colour on both pages, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Nebraska team page · Rutgers team page · All of this week's games