Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Huskie Stadium
Nevada at Northern Illinois
The machine favors Nevada by 11.2 (the machine's margin) and gives it 76% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Nevada No. 93 and Northern Illinois No. 133, 13.7 points apart; Northern Illinois is at home. The widest gap on the field: Northern Illinois's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 119 and Nevada's defense against it ranks No. 14, an edge to Nevada's defense.
When Nevada has the ball
Nevada's offense against Northern Illinois's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Nevada offense | Northern Illinois defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.8No. 116 | 36.8No. 135 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.0No. 128 | 6.5No. 126 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.2No. 80 | 5.2No. 127 | NEV offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 5.8No. 134 | 8.3No. 130 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.4%No. 116 | 12.7%No. 122 | Even |
When Northern Illinois has the ball
Northern Illinois's offense against Nevada's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Northern Illinois offense | Nevada defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.6No. 136 | 23.6No. 61 | NEV defense |
| Yards per play | 5.2No. 113 | 4.9No. 26 | NEV defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.9No. 101 | 4.1No. 76 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.4No. 119 | 6.0No. 14 | NEV defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 7.9%No. 125 | 8.0%No. 30 | NEV defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Nevada
Strengths
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 14Northern Illinois yards per pass attempt: No. 119
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 26Northern Illinois yards per play: No. 113
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 30Northern Illinois explosive pass rate: No. 125
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 138Northern Illinois giveaways: No. 120
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 134Northern Illinois yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 130
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 132Northern Illinois takeaways: No. 104
Northern Illinois
Strengths
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 101Nevada yards per carry allowed: No. 76
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 104Nevada giveaways: No. 132
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 113Nevada yards per play allowed: No. 26
Weak spots
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 138Nevada third-down rate: No. 105
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 136Nevada points allowed per game: No. 61
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 135Nevada points per game: No. 116
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Nevada | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −143 forced, 17 lost | −69 forced, 15 lost |
| Third-down rate | 35.4%No. 105 | 33.3%No. 120 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%No. 30 | 54.4%No. 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 58.3%No. 89 | 50.0%No. 114 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.3%No. 98 | 68.6%No. 116 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 4.9%No. 57 | 8.2%No. 123 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.2%No. 32 | 3.7%No. 121 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Nevada by 7 on Nov 9, Nevada by 5.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 1.5 points toward Northern Illinois.
- Step by step: Nevada by 7 → Nevada by 6 → Nevada by 5.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Nevada by 11.2; the betting line is Nevada by 5.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 44°F, wind 8 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Nevada team page · Northern Illinois team page · All of this week's games