Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 9:00 PM ET · Alamodome
North Texas at UTSA
The machine favors North Texas by 2.4 (the machine's margin) and gives it 55% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates North Texas No. 62 and UTSA No. 77, 4.9 points apart; UTSA is at home. The widest gap on the field: North Texas's points per game ranks No. 2 and UTSA's defense against it ranks No. 111, an edge to North Texas's offense.
When North Texas has the ball
North Texas's offense against UTSA's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | North Texas offense | UTSA defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 44.7No. 2 | 29.8No. 111 | UNT offense |
| Yards per play | 7.5No. 5 | 5.9No. 97 | UNT offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.3No. 20 | 5.0No. 120 | UNT offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.6No. 8 | 6.8No. 53 | UNT offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 15.9%No. 5 | 8.3%No. 34 | Even |
When UTSA has the ball
UTSA's offense against North Texas's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | UTSA offense | North Texas defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.0No. 37 | 30.9No. 116 | UTSA offense |
| Yards per play | 6.1No. 47 | 6.0No. 108 | UTSA offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.0No. 35 | 4.2No. 82 | UTSA offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.4No. 74 | 8.2No. 127 | UTSA offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.8%No. 86 | 12.6%No. 121 | UTSA offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
North Texas
Strengths
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 2UTSA points allowed per game: No. 111
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 5UTSA explosive passes allowed: No. 34
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 5UTSA yards per play allowed: No. 97
Weak spots
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 127UTSA yards per pass attempt: No. 74
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 121UTSA explosive pass rate: No. 86
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 116UTSA points per game: No. 37
UTSA
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 33North Texas takeaways: No. 31
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 34North Texas explosive pass rate: No. 5
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 35North Texas yards per carry allowed: No. 82
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 125North Texas sacks allowed (rate): No. 6
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 120North Texas yards per carry: No. 20
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 111North Texas points per game: No. 2
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | North Texas | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +414 forced, 10 lost | +513 forced, 8 lost |
| Third-down rate | 50.0%No. 14 | 40.9%No. 60 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.7%No. 61 | 39.1%No. 80 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 77.1%No. 8 | 61.3%No. 70 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.6%No. 92 | 57.9%No. 63 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 2.1%No. 6 | 5.1%No. 63 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.3%No. 87 | 3.5%No. 125 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 7 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- North Texas by 1.5 on Nov 9, North Texas by 2.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 1 point toward North Texas.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is North Texas by 2.4; the betting line is North Texas by 2.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): Indoors.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
North Texas team page · UTSA team page · All of this week's games