Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET · Ohio Stadium
Northwestern at Ohio State
The machine favors Ohio State by 16.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 84% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Ohio State No. 7 and Northwestern No. 39, 13.5 points apart; Ohio State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Ohio State's yards per play ranks No. 15 and Northwestern's defense against it ranks No. 74, an edge to Ohio State's offense.
When Northwestern has the ball
Northwestern's offense against Ohio State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Northwestern offense | Ohio State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0No. 50 | 18.3No. 21 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.5No. 24 | 4.7No. 15 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.9No. 39 | 3.2No. 20 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.7No. 19 | 5.8No. 6 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.5%No. 46 | 6.0%No. 5 | OSU defense |
When Ohio State has the ball
Ohio State's offense against Northwestern's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Ohio State offense | Northwestern defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.7No. 21 | 19.3No. 28 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.7No. 15 | 5.6No. 74 | OSU offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.0No. 95 | 4.6No. 100 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.6No. 9 | 6.3No. 30 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 14.3%No. 15 | 7.6%No. 21 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Northwestern
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 2Ohio State takeaways: No. 69
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 14Ohio State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 52
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 19Ohio State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 6
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 130Ohio State sack rate (defense): No. 130
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 119Ohio State sacks allowed (rate): No. 55
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 100Ohio State yards per carry: No. 95
Ohio State
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 5Northwestern explosive pass rate: No. 46
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 6Northwestern yards per pass attempt: No. 19
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 9Northwestern yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 30
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 130Northwestern sacks allowed (rate): No. 130
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 95Northwestern yards per carry allowed: No. 100
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 85Northwestern third-down rate: No. 44
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Northwestern | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +1215 forced, 3 lost | +111 forced, 10 lost |
| Third-down rate | 42.7%No. 44 | 44.1%No. 36 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%No. 86 | 39.7%No. 85 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 73.5%No. 14 | 62.5%No. 60 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.2%No. 20 | 56.5%No. 52 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 8.8%No. 130 | 4.8%No. 55 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 3.8%No. 119 | 3.0%No. 130 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Ohio State by 12.5 on Nov 9, Ohio State by 14 now (Nov 12).
- It has moved 1.5 points toward Ohio State.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had Ohio State by 9.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Ohio State by 16.0; the betting line is Ohio State by 14.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 41°F, wind 12 mph, no rain or snow.
- Starting quarterback (as of Nov 13): J. Sayin, Ohio State's starting quarterback, has been out since Oct 26. The machine's number already counts it.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Northwestern team page · Ohio State team page · All of this week's games