Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:30 PM ET · Kinnick Stadium
Purdue at Iowa
The machine favors Iowa by 16.4 (the machine's margin) and gives it 85% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Iowa No. 17 and Purdue No. 63, 13.9 points apart; Iowa is at home. The widest gap on the field: Purdue's yards per carry ranks No. 123 and Iowa's defense against it ranks No. 4, an edge to Iowa's defense.
When Purdue has the ball
Purdue's offense against Iowa's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Purdue offense | Iowa defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.4No. 59 | 12.2No. 3 | IOWA defense |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 79 | 4.4No. 8 | IOWA defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.5No. 123 | 2.5No. 4 | IOWA defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.9No. 45 | 6.3No. 28 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.2%No. 75 | 8.4%No. 35 | IOWA defense |
When Iowa has the ball
Iowa's offense against Purdue's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Iowa offense | Purdue defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8No. 72 | 32.3No. 123 | IOWA offense |
| Yards per play | 6.1No. 43 | 6.8No. 133 | IOWA offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.3No. 18 | 5.2No. 128 | IOWA offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.9No. 98 | 8.7No. 135 | IOWA offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 6.8%No. 131 | 14.3%No. 135 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Purdue
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 43Iowa takeaways: No. 98
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 45Iowa yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 28
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 57Iowa third-down rate allowed: No. 7
Weak spots
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 135Iowa yards per pass attempt: No. 98
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 135Iowa explosive pass rate: No. 131
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 133Iowa yards per play: No. 43
Iowa
Strengths
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 3Purdue points per game: No. 59
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 4Purdue yards per carry: No. 123
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 6Purdue sacks allowed (rate): No. 92
Weak spots
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 131Purdue explosive passes allowed: No. 135
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 98Purdue yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 135
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 98Purdue giveaways: No. 43
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Purdue | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +211 forced, 9 lost | −19 forced, 10 lost |
| Third-down rate | 41.0%No. 57 | 40.9%No. 58 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.5%No. 131 | 29.1%No. 7 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 55.0%No. 100 | 57.7%No. 91 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.5%No. 130 | 47.6%No. 25 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 6.2%No. 92 | 2.3%No. 8 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.2%No. 110 | 9.5%No. 6 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Iowa by 17.5 on Nov 9, Iowa by 17.5 now (Nov 12).
- It is back where it started this week, after moving in between.
- Step by step: Iowa by 17.5 → Iowa by 16.5 → Iowa by 17.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Iowa by 16.4; the betting line is Iowa by 17.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 37°F, wind 2 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Purdue in its second colour on the light page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Purdue team page · Iowa team page · All of this week's games