Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:45 PM ET · Razorback Stadium
South Carolina at Arkansas
The machine favors South Carolina by 13.2 (the machine's margin) and gives it 79% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates South Carolina No. 11 and Arkansas No. 53, 15.7 points apart; Arkansas is at home. The widest gap on the field: Arkansas's yards per carry ranks No. 130 and South Carolina's defense against it ranks No. 39, an edge to South Carolina's defense.
When South Carolina has the ball
South Carolina's offense against Arkansas's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | South Carolina offense | Arkansas defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.7No. 24 | 27.4No. 95 | SC offense |
| Yards per play | 6.6No. 22 | 5.9No. 99 | SC offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.5No. 8 | 4.6No. 94 | SC offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.5No. 66 | 7.4No. 85 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.7%No. 87 | 9.3%No. 57 | ARK defense |
When Arkansas has the ball
Arkansas's offense against South Carolina's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Arkansas offense | South Carolina defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.0No. 121 | 23.4No. 58 | SC defense |
| Yards per play | 4.9No. 130 | 5.2No. 41 | SC defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.2No. 130 | 3.6No. 39 | SC defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.6No. 108 | 6.9No. 57 | SC defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.8%No. 83 | 8.8%No. 45 | SC defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
South Carolina
Strengths
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 8Arkansas yards per carry allowed: No. 94
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 13Arkansas red-zone td rate allowed: No. 134
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 22Arkansas yards per play allowed: No. 99
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 135Arkansas giveaways: No. 109
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 102Arkansas takeaways: No. 74
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 87Arkansas explosive passes allowed: No. 57
Arkansas
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 40South Carolina third-down rate allowed: No. 78
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 57South Carolina explosive pass rate: No. 87
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 74South Carolina giveaways: No. 102
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 134South Carolina red-zone td rate: No. 13
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 130South Carolina yards per play allowed: No. 41
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 130South Carolina yards per carry allowed: No. 39
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | South Carolina | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −76 forced, 13 lost | −410 forced, 14 lost |
| Third-down rate | 46.4%No. 23 | 43.3%No. 40 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.1%No. 78 | 41.1%No. 99 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 74.2%No. 13 | 56.7%No. 96 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.7%No. 61 | 80.0%No. 134 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.5%No. 71 | 6.1%No. 84 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 6.9%No. 41 | 3.9%No. 116 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- South Carolina by 7.5 on Nov 9, South Carolina by 7.5 now (Nov 12).
- It is back where it started this week, after moving in between.
- Step by step: South Carolina by 7.5 → South Carolina by 7 → South Carolina by 7.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is South Carolina by 13.2; the betting line is South Carolina by 7.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 43°F, wind 7 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
South Carolina team page · Arkansas team page · All of this week's games