Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 5:00 PM ET · Joe Aillet Stadium
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech
The machine favors Louisiana Tech by 13.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 79% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Louisiana Tech No. 80 and Southern Miss No. 122, 10.5 points apart; Louisiana Tech is at home. The widest gap on the field: Louisiana Tech's points per game ranks No. 31 and Southern Miss's defense against it ranks No. 127, an edge to Louisiana Tech's offense.
When Southern Miss has the ball
Southern Miss's offense against Louisiana Tech's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Southern Miss offense | Louisiana Tech defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.4No. 82 | 20.4No. 37 | LT defense |
| Yards per play | 5.7No. 90 | 5.0No. 31 | LT defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.5No. 60 | 3.4No. 25 | LT defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.7No. 106 | 6.9No. 55 | LT defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.1%No. 56 | 11.3%No. 108 | USM offense |
When Louisiana Tech has the ball
Louisiana Tech's offense against Southern Miss's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Louisiana Tech offense | Southern Miss defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6No. 31 | 33.6No. 127 | LT offense |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 61 | 5.9No. 98 | LT offense |
| Yards per carry | 3.8No. 106 | 4.8No. 113 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.4No. 26 | 7.6No. 102 | LT offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.3%No. 32 | 9.8%No. 70 | LT offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Southern Miss
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 27Louisiana Tech sacks allowed (rate): No. 96
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 43Louisiana Tech red-zone td rate allowed: No. 39
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 56Louisiana Tech explosive passes allowed: No. 108
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 136Louisiana Tech third-down rate allowed: No. 46
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 127Louisiana Tech points per game: No. 31
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 113Louisiana Tech yards per carry: No. 106
Louisiana Tech
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 4Southern Miss giveaways: No. 68
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 13Southern Miss sacks allowed (rate): No. 62
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 25Southern Miss yards per carry: No. 60
Weak spots
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 108Southern Miss explosive pass rate: No. 56
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 106Southern Miss yards per carry allowed: No. 113
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 96Southern Miss sack rate (defense): No. 27
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Southern Miss | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −110 forced, 11 lost | +1121 forced, 10 lost |
| Third-down rate | 29.8%No. 136 | 41.7%No. 51 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0%No. 97 | 35.7%No. 46 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 66.7%No. 43 | 63.2%No. 56 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.5%No. 77 | 53.6%No. 39 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.1%No. 62 | 6.5%No. 96 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.4%No. 27 | 8.0%No. 13 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Louisiana Tech by 17.5 on Nov 9, Louisiana Tech by 17.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Louisiana Tech by 13.0; the betting line is Louisiana Tech by 17.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 57°F, wind 7 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Southern Miss team page · Louisiana Tech team page · All of this week's games