Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 9:30 PM ET · Boone Pickens Stadium
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
The machine favors Oklahoma State by 1.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 55% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Texas Tech No. 21 and Oklahoma State No. 24, 1.0 points apart; Oklahoma State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Oklahoma State's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 10 and Texas Tech's defense against it ranks No. 98, an edge to Oklahoma State's offense.
When Texas Tech has the ball
Texas Tech's offense against Oklahoma State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Texas Tech offense | Oklahoma State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.6No. 15 | 27.2No. 93 | TTU offense |
| Yards per play | 6.5No. 29 | 5.7No. 83 | TTU offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.3No. 21 | 3.9No. 59 | TTU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.8No. 51 | 7.8No. 112 | TTU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.4%No. 70 | 13.8%No. 133 | TTU offense |
When Oklahoma State has the ball
Oklahoma State's offense against Texas Tech's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Oklahoma State offense | Texas Tech defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.9No. 3 | 24.1No. 65 | OKST offense |
| Yards per play | 7.5No. 4 | 5.7No. 84 | OKST offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.4No. 13 | 3.5No. 34 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.5No. 10 | 7.5No. 98 | OKST offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 15.4%No. 7 | 8.4%No. 37 | OKST offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Texas Tech
Strengths
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 15Oklahoma State points allowed per game: No. 93
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 21Oklahoma State yards per carry allowed: No. 59
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 23Oklahoma State red-zone td rate: No. 87
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 108Oklahoma State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 129
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 104Oklahoma State takeaways: No. 32
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 98Oklahoma State yards per pass attempt: No. 10
Oklahoma State
Strengths
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 3Texas Tech points allowed per game: No. 65
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 4Texas Tech sack rate (defense): No. 40
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 4Texas Tech yards per play allowed: No. 84
Weak spots
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 133Texas Tech explosive pass rate: No. 70
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 129Texas Tech red-zone td rate: No. 108
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 122Texas Tech takeaways: No. 35
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Texas Tech | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +114 forced, 13 lost | −114 forced, 15 lost |
| Third-down rate | 40.2%No. 70 | 40.6%No. 63 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.1%No. 79 | 38.8%No. 74 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 52.9%No. 108 | 58.8%No. 87 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.7%No. 23 | 73.1%No. 129 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.8%No. 77 | 1.5%No. 4 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.0%No. 40 | 6.0%No. 65 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Oklahoma State by 3.5 on Nov 9, Oklahoma State by 3.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has not moved this week.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had Texas Tech by 1.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Oklahoma State by 1.5; the betting line is Oklahoma State by 3.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 50°F, wind 13 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Texas Tech team page · Oklahoma State team page · All of this week's games