Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 2:00 PM ET · Rice Stadium
Tulane at Rice
The machine favors Tulane by 3.9 (the machine's margin) and gives it 59% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Tulane No. 94 and Rice No. 120, 6.4 points apart; Rice is at home. The widest gap on the field: Rice's yards per carry ranks No. 7 and Tulane's defense against it ranks No. 117, an edge to Rice's offense.
When Tulane has the ball
Tulane's offense against Rice's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Tulane offense | Rice defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.1No. 114 | 34.0No. 128 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.5No. 99 | 5.9No. 101 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.2No. 83 | 4.7No. 106 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.6No. 110 | 7.3No. 83 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.2%No. 122 | 10.8%No. 99 | Even |
When Rice has the ball
Rice's offense against Tulane's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Rice offense | Tulane defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.2No. 113 | 29.2No. 107 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.0No. 55 | 6.1No. 116 | RICE offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.5No. 7 | 4.9No. 117 | RICE offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.1No. 90 | 7.9No. 117 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.0%No. 81 | 13.3%No. 129 | RICE offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Tulane
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 78Rice red-zone td rate: No. 115
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 83Rice yards per carry allowed: No. 106
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 87Rice third-down rate allowed: No. 123
Weak spots
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 136Rice third-down rate: No. 128
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 129Rice explosive pass rate: No. 81
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 125Rice takeaways: No. 137
Rice
Strengths
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 7Tulane yards per carry allowed: No. 117
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 55Tulane yards per play allowed: No. 116
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 81Tulane explosive passes allowed: No. 129
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 137Tulane giveaways: No. 125
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 133Tulane sack rate (defense): No. 101
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 128Tulane third-down rate allowed: No. 136
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Tulane | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −510 forced, 15 lost | −85 forced, 13 lost |
| Third-down rate | 38.5%No. 87 | 31.8%No. 128 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0%No. 136 | 44.6%No. 123 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 54.5%No. 104 | 50.0%No. 115 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.5%No. 78 | 65.0%No. 101 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 7.2%No. 109 | 10.0%No. 133 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.5%No. 101 | 3.9%No. 118 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Rice by 3 on Nov 9, Rice by 3 now (Nov 13).
- It is back where it started this week, after moving in between.
- Step by step: Rice by 3 → Rice by 2.5 → Rice by 3.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Tulane by 3.9; the betting line is Rice by 3.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 68°F, wind 12 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Tulane team page · Rice team page · All of this week's games