Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 1:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
UAB at Temple
The machine favors Temple by 2.8 (the machine's margin) and gives it 58% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Temple No. 105 and UAB No. 110, 0.2 points apart; Temple is at home. The widest gap on the field: Temple's yards per carry ranks No. 29 and UAB's defense against it ranks No. 83, an edge to Temple's offense.
When UAB has the ball
UAB's offense against Temple's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | UAB offense | Temple defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.8No. 112 | 28.3No. 103 | Even |
| Yards per play | 4.8No. 131 | 6.0No. 110 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.7No. 116 | 4.6No. 101 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.5No. 114 | 8.1No. 126 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 7.4%No. 128 | 12.8%No. 124 | Even |
When Temple has the ball
Temple's offense against UAB's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Temple offense | UAB defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.9No. 92 | 23.8No. 63 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.3No. 38 | 4.8No. 23 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.1No. 29 | 4.2No. 83 | TEM offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.1No. 37 | 5.8No. 8 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.7%No. 40 | 5.3%No. 3 | UAB defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
UAB
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 3Temple explosive pass rate: No. 40
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 8Temple yards per pass attempt: No. 37
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 10Temple sacks allowed (rate): No. 116
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 135Temple sack rate (defense): No. 115
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 134Temple red-zone td rate allowed: No. 127
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 131Temple yards per play allowed: No. 110
Temple
Strengths
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 29UAB yards per carry allowed: No. 83
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 37UAB yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 8
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 38UAB yards per play allowed: No. 23
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 127UAB red-zone td rate: No. 134
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 126UAB yards per pass attempt: No. 114
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 125UAB third-down rate: No. 71
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | UAB | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −610 forced, 16 lost | −29 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 40.2%No. 71 | 38.8%No. 86 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1%No. 65 | 45.6%No. 125 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 40.0%No. 134 | 52.2%No. 110 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.0%No. 88 | 72.2%No. 127 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 10.5%No. 135 | 7.9%No. 116 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 8.3%No. 10 | 4.0%No. 115 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Temple by 2.5 on Nov 9, Temple by 2.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Temple by 2.8; the betting line is Temple by 2.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 44°F, wind 11 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.