Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:30 PM ET · University Stadium (NM)
UNLV at New Mexico
The machine favors New Mexico by 13.8 (the machine's margin) and gives it 81% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates New Mexico No. 48 and UNLV No. 91, 11.3 points apart; New Mexico is at home. The widest gap on the field: UNLV's points per game ranks No. 87 and New Mexico's defense against it ranks No. 1, an edge to New Mexico's defense.
When UNLV has the ball
UNLV's offense against New Mexico's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | UNLV offense | New Mexico defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.1No. 87 | 10.9No. 1 | UNM defense |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 72 | 4.2No. 3 | UNM defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.5No. 61 | 2.4No. 3 | UNM defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.5No. 67 | 6.0No. 15 | UNM defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.1%No. 100 | 8.7%No. 43 | UNM defense |
When New Mexico has the ball
New Mexico's offense against UNLV's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | New Mexico offense | UNLV defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.6No. 25 | 25.7No. 75 | UNM offense |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 82 | 6.0No. 105 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.8No. 44 | 5.2No. 129 | UNM offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.2No. 30 | 6.7No. 46 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.4%No. 31 | 11.6%No. 116 | UNM offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
UNLV
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 45New Mexico third-down rate allowed: No. 9
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 46New Mexico yards per pass attempt: No. 30
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 54New Mexico red-zone td rate: No. 22
Weak spots
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 129New Mexico yards per carry: No. 44
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 120New Mexico sack rate (defense): No. 30
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 119New Mexico red-zone td rate allowed: No. 4
New Mexico
Strengths
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 1UNLV points per game: No. 87
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 2UNLV giveaways: No. 107
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 3UNLV yards per carry: No. 61
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 136UNLV sack rate (defense): No. 57
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 82UNLV yards per play allowed: No. 105
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 65UNLV third-down rate allowed: No. 91
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | UNLV | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −112 forced, 13 lost | +1826 forced, 8 lost |
| Third-down rate | 42.6%No. 45 | 40.5%No. 65 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.2%No. 91 | 29.8%No. 9 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 48.3%No. 119 | 72.2%No. 22 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.7%No. 54 | 33.3%No. 4 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 8.0%No. 120 | 10.8%No. 136 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 6.2%No. 57 | 7.3%No. 30 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- New Mexico by 14.5 on Nov 9, New Mexico by 16.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 2 points toward New Mexico.
- Step by step: New Mexico by 14.5 → New Mexico by 14 → New Mexico by 14.5 → New Mexico by 16.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is New Mexico by 13.8; the betting line is New Mexico by 16.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 53°F, wind 14 mph, rain.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: UNLV in its second colour on both pages, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
UNLV team page · New Mexico team page · All of this week's games