Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
USC at Indiana
The machine favors Indiana by 7.8 (the machine's margin) and gives it 69% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Indiana No. 9 and USC No. 19, 5.3 points apart; Indiana is at home. The widest gap on the field: Indiana's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 14 and USC's defense against it ranks No. 119, an edge to Indiana's offense.
When USC has the ball
USC's offense against Indiana's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | USC offense | Indiana defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4No. 43 | 12.4No. 4 | IU defense |
| Yards per play | 6.3No. 39 | 4.2No. 1 | IU defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.9No. 103 | 2.3No. 1 | IU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.5No. 23 | 6.0No. 12 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.8%No. 39 | 8.0%No. 29 | Even |
When Indiana has the ball
Indiana's offense against USC's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Indiana offense | USC defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4No. 40 | 24.2No. 66 | Even |
| Yards per play | 7.0No. 9 | 5.8No. 90 | IU offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.3No. 17 | 3.8No. 53 | IU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.0No. 14 | 7.9No. 119 | IU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 14.2%No. 16 | 11.4%No. 109 | IU offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
USC
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 15Indiana third-down rate allowed: No. 19
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 23Indiana yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 12
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 29Indiana sack rate (defense): No. 7
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 128Indiana giveaways: No. 12
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 119Indiana yards per pass attempt: No. 14
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 109Indiana explosive pass rate: No. 16
Indiana
Strengths
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 1USC yards per carry: No. 103
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 1USC yards per play: No. 39
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 4USC points per game: No. 43
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 97USC giveaways: No. 45
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 68USC third-down rate allowed: No. 49
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 49USC sack rate (defense): No. 89
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | USC | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −27 forced, 9 lost | +39 forced, 6 lost |
| Third-down rate | 49.5%No. 15 | 40.2%No. 68 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8%No. 49 | 31.6%No. 19 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 65.1%No. 47 | 66.7%No. 39 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.9%No. 36 | 36.8%No. 8 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.7%No. 29 | 4.6%No. 49 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.3%No. 89 | 9.3%No. 7 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Indiana by 7.5 on Nov 9, Indiana by 9.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 2 points toward Indiana.
- Step by step: Indiana by 7.5 → Indiana by 8.5 → Indiana by 9.5.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had Indiana by 7. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Indiana by 7.8; the betting line is Indiana by 9.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 45°F, wind 6 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: USC in its second colour on the light page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
USC team page · Indiana team page · All of this week's games