Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 9:30 PM ET · Snapdragon Stadium
Utah State at San Diego State
The machine favors Utah State by 1.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 53% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Utah State No. 86 and San Diego State No. 100, 4.1 points apart; San Diego State is at home. The widest gap on the field: San Diego State's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 120 and Utah State's defense against it ranks No. 17, an edge to Utah State's defense.
When Utah State has the ball
Utah State's offense against San Diego State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Utah State offense | San Diego State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.9No. 134 | 34.3No. 129 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.2No. 120 | 5.9No. 96 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.9No. 104 | 3.9No. 61 | SDSU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.4No. 121 | 8.1No. 125 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.3%No. 97 | 11.9%No. 118 | Even |
When San Diego State has the ball
San Diego State's offense against Utah State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | San Diego State offense | Utah State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.4No. 81 | 20.6No. 39 | USU defense |
| Yards per play | 5.3No. 111 | 4.8No. 24 | USU defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 69 | 3.5No. 35 | USU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.4No. 120 | 6.0No. 17 | USU defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.2%No. 76 | 6.5%No. 8 | USU defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Utah State
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 8San Diego State explosive pass rate: No. 76
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 17San Diego State yards per pass attempt: No. 120
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 19San Diego State red-zone td rate: No. 63
Weak spots
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 134San Diego State points allowed per game: No. 129
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 128San Diego State sack rate (defense): No. 68
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 121San Diego State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 125
San Diego State
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 40Utah State sack rate (defense): No. 104
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 61Utah State yards per carry: No. 104
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 63Utah State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 19
Weak spots
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 133Utah State third-down rate: No. 83
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 129Utah State points per game: No. 134
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 125Utah State yards per pass attempt: No. 121
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Utah State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −39 forced, 12 lost | −211 forced, 13 lost |
| Third-down rate | 39.0%No. 83 | 34.5%No. 115 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.3%No. 102 | 48.9%No. 133 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 50.0%No. 116 | 62.1%No. 63 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.5%No. 19 | 68.4%No. 115 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 8.6%No. 128 | 4.1%No. 40 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.4%No. 104 | 5.8%No. 68 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Utah State by 1.5 on Nov 9, Utah State by 2.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 1 point toward Utah State.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Utah State by 1.5; the betting line is Utah State by 2.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 67°F, wind 4 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Utah State team page · San Diego State team page · All of this week's games