Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 4:15 PM ET · Spartan Stadium
Washington at Michigan State
The machine favors Washington by 0.8 (the machine's margin) and gives it 51% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Washington No. 47 and Michigan State No. 58, 3.4 points apart; Michigan State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Michigan State's points per game ranks No. 129 and Washington's defense against it ranks No. 45, an edge to Washington's defense.
When Washington has the ball
Washington's offense against Michigan State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Washington offense | Michigan State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.3No. 84 | 23.6No. 60 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 74 | 5.5No. 61 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.6No. 121 | 4.0No. 69 | MSU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.4No. 76 | 7.2No. 73 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.1%No. 79 | 10.6%No. 96 | Even |
When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State's offense against Washington's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Michigan State offense | Washington defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.3No. 129 | 21.9No. 45 | WASH defense |
| Yards per play | 4.6No. 136 | 5.5No. 60 | WASH defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.1No. 133 | 4.0No. 74 | WASH defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.4No. 118 | 6.9No. 60 | WASH defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 6.6%No. 133 | 9.6%No. 60 | WASH defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Washington
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 37Michigan State giveaways: No. 65
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 40Michigan State third-down rate: No. 82
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 45Michigan State points per game: No. 129
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 121Michigan State third-down rate allowed: No. 83
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 121Michigan State yards per carry allowed: No. 69
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 112Michigan State sack rate (defense): No. 52
Michigan State
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 52Washington sacks allowed (rate): No. 112
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 60Washington points per game: No. 84
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 61Washington yards per play: No. 74
Weak spots
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 136Washington yards per play allowed: No. 60
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 133Washington yards per carry allowed: No. 74
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 133Washington explosive passes allowed: No. 60
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Washington | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +414 forced, 10 lost | −29 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 33.3%No. 121 | 39.0%No. 82 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.0%No. 40 | 39.5%No. 83 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60.5%No. 77 | 46.4%No. 124 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%No. 81 | 59.4%No. 76 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 7.5%No. 112 | 8.0%No. 118 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.5%No. 82 | 6.3%No. 52 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 6 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Washington by 4 on Nov 9, Washington by 2.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 1.5 points toward Michigan State.
- Step by step: Washington by 4 → Washington by 3 → Washington by 3.5 → Washington by 2.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Washington by 0.8; the betting line is Washington by 2.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 41°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Washington team page · Michigan State team page · All of this week's games