Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET · SECU Stadium
Wisconsin at Maryland
The machine favors Wisconsin by 10.6 (the machine's margin) and gives it 74% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Wisconsin No. 31 and Maryland No. 73, 13.1 points apart; Maryland is at home. The widest gap on the field: Maryland's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 104 and Wisconsin's defense against it ranks No. 18, an edge to Wisconsin's defense.
When Wisconsin has the ball
Wisconsin's offense against Maryland's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Wisconsin offense | Maryland defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4No. 95 | 31.3No. 118 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.7No. 85 | 5.7No. 87 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.2No. 84 | 4.0No. 67 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.3No. 81 | 7.6No. 100 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.2%No. 52 | 10.9%No. 101 | WIS offense |
When Maryland has the ball
Maryland's offense against Wisconsin's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Maryland offense | Wisconsin defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.7No. 74 | 16.3No. 16 | WIS defense |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 78 | 4.4No. 7 | WIS defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.5No. 56 | 2.8No. 10 | WIS defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.8No. 104 | 6.0No. 18 | WIS defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.3%No. 96 | 7.2%No. 14 | WIS defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Wisconsin
Strengths
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 7Maryland yards per play: No. 78
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 10Maryland yards per carry: No. 56
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 11Maryland red-zone td rate: No. 62
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 128Maryland red-zone td rate allowed: No. 90
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 111Maryland giveaways: No. 49
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 95Maryland points allowed per game: No. 118
Maryland
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 12Wisconsin sack rate (defense): No. 83
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 49Wisconsin takeaways: No. 111
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 51Wisconsin sacks allowed (rate): No. 54
Weak spots
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 118Wisconsin points per game: No. 95
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 105Wisconsin third-down rate: No. 53
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 104Wisconsin yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 18
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Wisconsin | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −19 forced, 10 lost | +212 forced, 10 lost |
| Third-down rate | 41.6%No. 53 | 36.1%No. 102 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%No. 88 | 41.7%No. 105 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 44.0%No. 128 | 62.2%No. 62 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.0%No. 11 | 63.3%No. 90 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 4.7%No. 54 | 2.5%No. 12 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.5%No. 83 | 6.3%No. 51 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 2 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Wisconsin by 8.5 on Nov 9, Wisconsin by 8.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Wisconsin by 10.6; the betting line is Wisconsin by 8.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 46°F, wind 12 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Wisconsin in its second colour on both pages, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Wisconsin team page · Maryland team page · All of this week's games