Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 10:00 PM ET · Sun Bowl
Wyoming at UTEP
The machine favors Wyoming by 11.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 76% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Wyoming No. 103 and UTEP No. 137, 14.0 points apart; UTEP is at home. The widest gap on the field: UTEP's explosive pass rate ranks No. 130 and Wyoming's defense against it ranks No. 23, an edge to Wyoming's defense.
When Wyoming has the ball
Wyoming's offense against UTEP's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Wyoming offense | UTEP defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9No. 111 | 34.3No. 130 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 58 | 6.2No. 117 | WYO offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.4No. 14 | 4.7No. 108 | WYO offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.7No. 107 | 8.2No. 128 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.5%No. 114 | 11.5%No. 111 | Even |
When UTEP has the ball
UTEP's offense against Wyoming's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | UTEP offense | Wyoming defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.1No. 138 | 21.7No. 43 | WYO defense |
| Yards per play | 5.0No. 124 | 5.4No. 55 | WYO defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.0No. 97 | 4.7No. 110 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.3No. 125 | 6.2No. 26 | WYO defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 7.0%No. 130 | 7.6%No. 23 | WYO defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Wyoming
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 11UTEP sacks allowed (rate): No. 138
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 14UTEP yards per carry allowed: No. 108
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 23UTEP explosive pass rate: No. 130
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 119UTEP third-down rate allowed: No. 130
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 114UTEP explosive passes allowed: No. 111
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 112UTEP giveaways: No. 115
UTEP
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 73Wyoming giveaways: No. 108
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 79Wyoming red-zone td rate: No. 98
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 97Wyoming yards per carry allowed: No. 110
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 138Wyoming third-down rate allowed: No. 98
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 138Wyoming sack rate (defense): No. 11
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 138Wyoming points allowed per game: No. 43
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Wyoming | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −49 forced, 13 lost | −311 forced, 14 lost |
| Third-down rate | 34.0%No. 119 | 25.9%No. 138 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0%No. 98 | 47.4%No. 130 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 56.2%No. 98 | 36.8%No. 136 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%No. 35 | 59.5%No. 79 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 7.0%No. 104 | 16.1%No. 138 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 8.3%No. 11 | 3.2%No. 127 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 7 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Wyoming by 9.5 on Nov 9, Wyoming by 7.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 2 points toward UTEP.
- Step by step: Wyoming by 9.5 → Wyoming by 8.5 → Wyoming by 7.5 → Wyoming by 8.5 → Wyoming by 7.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Wyoming by 11.5; the betting line is Wyoming by 7.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 61°F, wind 11 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Wyoming team page · UTEP team page · All of this week's games