Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Arizona State at UCF
The machine favors UCF by 4.4 (the machine's margin) and gives it 62% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates UCF No. 56 and Arizona State No. 68, 1.9 points apart; UCF is at home. The widest gap on the field: UCF's explosive pass rate ranks No. 109 and Arizona State's defense against it ranks No. 17, an edge to Arizona State's defense.
When Arizona State has the ball
Arizona State's offense against UCF's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Arizona State offense | UCF defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4No. 67 | 26.0No. 82 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.7No. 89 | 5.5No. 72 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.0No. 92 | 3.6No. 41 | UCF defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.3No. 78 | 7.7No. 107 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.7%No. 63 | 12.0%No. 120 | ASU offense |
When UCF has the ball
UCF's offense against Arizona State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | UCF offense | Arizona State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.1No. 55 | 27.3No. 94 | UCF offense |
| Yards per play | 5.6No. 93 | 5.3No. 44 | ASU defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.3No. 75 | 3.9No. 55 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.9No. 101 | 6.5No. 34 | ASU defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.8%No. 109 | 7.5%No. 17 | ASU defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Arizona State
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 17UCF explosive pass rate: No. 109
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 33UCF red-zone td rate: No. 81
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 34UCF yards per pass attempt: No. 101
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 132UCF third-down rate allowed: No. 94
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 118UCF red-zone td rate allowed: No. 82
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 103UCF sack rate (defense): No. 93
UCF
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 36Arizona State giveaways: No. 58
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 41Arizona State yards per carry: No. 92
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 55Arizona State points allowed per game: No. 94
Weak spots
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 120Arizona State explosive pass rate: No. 63
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 109Arizona State explosive passes allowed: No. 17
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 108Arizona State third-down rate allowed: No. 35
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Arizona State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −29 forced, 11 lost | +314 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 30.4%No. 132 | 35.3%No. 108 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.1%No. 35 | 40.6%No. 94 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 48.3%No. 118 | 59.5%No. 81 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%No. 33 | 60.6%No. 82 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 7.0%No. 103 | 6.1%No. 90 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.3%No. 85 | 5.0%No. 93 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 6 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- UCF by 3 on Nov 9, UCF by 3.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward UCF.
- Step by step: UCF by 3 → UCF by 3.5 → UCF by 3 → UCF by 3.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is UCF by 4.4; the betting line is UCF by 3.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 60°F, wind 9 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Arizona State team page · UCF team page · All of this week's games