Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 1:00 PM ET · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina
The machine favors Coastal Carolina by 5.1 (the machine's margin) and gives it 63% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Coastal Carolina No. 102 and Arkansas State No. 115, 2.6 points apart; Coastal Carolina is at home. The widest gap on the field: Coastal Carolina's explosive pass rate ranks No. 27 and Arkansas State's defense against it ranks No. 130, an edge to Coastal Carolina's offense.
When Arkansas State has the ball
Arkansas State's offense against Coastal Carolina's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Arkansas State offense | Coastal Carolina defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.4No. 75 | 24.7No. 69 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.1No. 44 | 5.9No. 100 | ARST offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.2No. 76 | 4.6No. 96 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.1No. 32 | 7.7No. 105 | ARST offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 13.4%No. 20 | 10.1%No. 79 | ARST offense |
When Coastal Carolina has the ball
Coastal Carolina's offense against Arkansas State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Coastal Carolina offense | Arkansas State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.7No. 93 | 26.3No. 85 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 80 | 6.2No. 118 | CCU offense |
| Yards per carry | 3.7No. 112 | 5.3No. 130 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 52 | 7.7No. 104 | CCU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.5%No. 27 | 13.6%No. 130 | CCU offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Arkansas State
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 18Coastal Carolina giveaways: No. 136
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 20Coastal Carolina explosive passes allowed: No. 79
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 32Coastal Carolina yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 105
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 132Coastal Carolina sacks allowed (rate): No. 94
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 130Coastal Carolina yards per carry: No. 112
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 130Coastal Carolina explosive pass rate: No. 27
Coastal Carolina
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 14Arkansas State giveaways: No. 46
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 27Arkansas State explosive passes allowed: No. 130
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 42Arkansas State sacks allowed (rate): No. 69
Weak spots
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 136Arkansas State takeaways: No. 18
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 124Arkansas State third-down rate allowed: No. 126
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 117Arkansas State third-down rate: No. 35
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +515 forced, 10 lost | −316 forced, 19 lost |
| Third-down rate | 44.2%No. 35 | 32.7%No. 124 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.8%No. 126 | 43.1%No. 117 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 68.8%No. 34 | 57.1%No. 94 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.4%No. 122 | 57.6%No. 58 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.4%No. 69 | 6.4%No. 94 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 2.7%No. 132 | 6.7%No. 42 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Coastal Carolina by 1.5 on Nov 9, Coastal Carolina by 1.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Coastal Carolina by 5.1; the betting line is Coastal Carolina by 1.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 56°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Arkansas State team page · Coastal Carolina team page · All of this week's games