Week 11 · Wednesday, Nov 11 · 7:30 PM ET · Scheumann Stadium
Buffalo at Ball State
Final: Buffalo 28, Ball State 7.
No pre-game number from the machine for this game: it kicked off before the machine's numbers for the week were frozen.
After Week 10 the machine rates Buffalo No. 109 and Ball State No. 131, 8.9 points apart; Ball State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Buffalo's explosive pass rate ranks No. 129 and Ball State's defense against it ranks No. 72, an edge to Ball State's defense.
When Buffalo has the ball
Buffalo's offense against Ball State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Buffalo offense | Ball State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.9No. 97 | 34.8No. 132 | BUF offense |
| Yards per play | 4.7No. 134 | 6.6No. 130 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.1No. 86 | 4.9No. 114 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 5.4No. 138 | 8.5No. 133 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 7.2%No. 129 | 9.9%No. 72 | BALL defense |
When Ball State has the ball
Ball State's offense against Buffalo's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Ball State offense | Buffalo defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.9No. 104 | 26.0No. 80 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.3No. 110 | 5.7No. 80 | BUF defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.3No. 73 | 4.3No. 85 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.5No. 111 | 7.3No. 78 | BUF defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.3%No. 71 | 9.1%No. 52 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Buffalo
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 42Ball State sack rate (defense): No. 96
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 45Ball State third-down rate: No. 103
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 52Ball State explosive pass rate: No. 71
Weak spots
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 138Ball State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 133
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 134Ball State yards per play allowed: No. 130
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 129Ball State explosive passes allowed: No. 72
Ball State
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 24Buffalo red-zone td rate allowed: No. 104
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 37Buffalo takeaways: No. 95
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 46Buffalo sack rate (defense): No. 94
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 137Buffalo red-zone td rate: No. 112
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 133Buffalo yards per pass attempt: No. 138
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 132Buffalo points per game: No. 97
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Buffalo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −59 forced, 14 lost | −18 forced, 9 lost |
| Third-down rate | 39.0%No. 81 | 35.7%No. 103 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7%No. 45 | 43.0%No. 115 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 50.0%No. 112 | 70.8%No. 24 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.4%No. 104 | 81.2%No. 137 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 4.2%No. 42 | 4.5%No. 46 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.9%No. 94 | 4.7%No. 96 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 2 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 11.
- Buffalo by 2.5 on Nov 9, Buffalo by 1.5 at the last pull before kickoff (Nov 11).
- It moved 1 point toward Ball State.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Weather at kickoff (as of Nov 13): 57°F, wind 3 mph, rain.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Buffalo team page · Ball State team page · All of this week's games