Buffalo
Buffalo is 6-3 and No. 109 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 10.7 points below an average FBS team. Last game: won 34-31 at Miami (OH) in Week 10.
Week 11: at Ball State, Wednesday, Nov 11: the matchup, unit by unit
Why Buffalo is No. 109
- Buffalo's rating is −10.7: the machine's estimate that Buffalo is 10.7 points worse than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 109 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
- It started the season at −10.8, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it up 0.1.
- The biggest weekly moves: +3.7 after Week 6 (W 23-8 at Toledo) and −2.0 after Week 2 (L 20-33 at Florida International).
- Its record is 6-3. The 3 losses were to No. 35 Penn State, No. 78 Western Michigan, No. 108 Florida International, by 19.3 points on average. The 6 wins came by 6.5 points on average; the best was over No. 89 Toledo. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
- Its FBS opponents so far average No. 97 in the machine's ratings.
- Just above is No. 108 Florida International (−10.6); just below is No. 110 UAB (−10.8).
The rating, week by week
Strengths and weak spots
Head coach
Pete Lembo is in his 3rd season at Buffalo (since 2024). This season: 6-3. At Buffalo overall: 20-14, counting this season.
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
Team stats
Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.
Passing
| Completions-attempts | 149-292 |
|---|---|
| Passing yards | 1598 |
| Touchdowns-interceptions | 12-6 |
| Yards per attempt* | 5.4No. 138 of 138 |
| Explosive pass rate | 7.2%No. 129 of 138 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 4.2%No. 42 of 138 |
Rushing
| Carries-yards | 371-1509 |
|---|---|
| Yards per carry | 4.1No. 86 of 138 |
| 10-plus-yard runs (rate) | 9.9%No. 128 of 138 |
| Stuffed at or behind the line (rate) | 16.2%No. 53 of 138 |
Scoring
| Points per game | 23.9No. 97 of 138 |
|---|---|
| Yards per play | 4.72No. 134 of 138 |
| Third-down rate | 39.0%No. 81 of 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 50.0%No. 112 of 138 |
| Giveaways | 14No. 111 of 138 |
Defense
| Points allowed per game | 26.0No. 80 of 138 |
|---|---|
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66No. 80 of 138 |
| Yards per pass attempt allowed | 7.3No. 78 of 138 |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.3No. 85 of 138 |
| Sack rate | 4.9%No. 94 of 138 |
| Takeaways | 9No. 95 of 138 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7%No. 45 of 138 |
Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
Player leaders
The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).
Passing
- Jason Wright114-231, 1345 yds, 9 TD, 6 INT
- Elijah Holmes35-61, 253 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
Rushing
- Messiah Burch165 carries, 901 yds, 5 TD
- Nino Hill63 carries, 202 yds, 2 TD
- Jason Wright65 carries, 162 yds, 4 TD
Receiving
- Chance Morrow53 catches, 682 yds, 8 TD
- Dwayne Early Jr.19 catches, 272 yds, 0 TD
- Clint Walker22 catches, 195 yds, 3 TD
Tackles
- Saveon Brown75
- Miles Greer57
- Ronnell Davis50
Sacks
- Sedrick Vessah3.5
- Will Clark3.5
- Logan Goodwin2
Interceptions
- Kobi Blackwell1
- Miles Greer1
- Saveon Brown1
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
Who's playing
Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.
Throwing
- Jason WrightMost passes in the last game8 games231 attempts79%
- Elijah Holmes2 games61 attempts21%
Carrying
- Messiah Burch9 games165 carries57%
- Nino Hill6 games63 carries22%
- Terrance Shelton Jr.3 games35 carries12%
- James McNeil Jr.4 games27 carries9%
Catching
- Chance Morrow9 games53 catches36%
- Clint Walker7 games22 catches15%
- Jaylen Andrews8 games21 catches14%
- Dwayne Early Jr.7 games19 catches13%
Tackling
- Saveon Brown9 games75 tackles13%
- Miles Greer9 games57 tackles10%
- Ronnell Davis8 games50 tackles8%
- John Keough9 games48 tackles8%
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
The season, week by week
- Week 1 W 21–17 vs UAlbany. UAlbany is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against.
- Week 2 L 20–33 at Florida International. The pass defense gave ground: Florida International got 10.2 yards an attempt, 3.9 over what it usually gains. Lost the turnover battle by 2.
- Week 3 L 13–55 at Penn State. The run defense gave ground: Penn State got 7.4 yards a carry, 3.7 over what it usually gains. Lost the turnover battle by 2.
- Week 4 W 31–28 vs Robert Morris. Robert Morris is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against. Lost the turnover battle by 3.
- Week 5 L 17–20 vs Western Michigan. The run defense was the strength: Western Michigan got 3.1 yards a carry, 1.8 under what it usually gains. Its most yards an attempt of the season.
- Week 6 W 23–8 at Toledo. The pass defense was the strength: Toledo got 5.6 yards an attempt, 2.9 under what it usually gains. The machine had Toledo by 14.5 (82%), so this was a win it did not see coming; Buffalo won the turnover battle by 3.
- Week 7 W 25–18 vs Massachusetts. The passing game struggled: 3.8 yards an attempt, 2.9 less than Massachusetts usually allows.
- Week 8 W 31–24 vs Bowling Green. The run game was the strength: 6.1 yards a carry, 1.3 more than Bowling Green usually allows. Its most yards a carry of the season.
- Week 10 W 34–31 at Miami (OH). No unit was far from the usual. The biggest gap was the pass defense: Miami (OH) got 6.7 yards an attempt, 0.9 under what it usually gains. Lost the turnover battle by 2.