The Machine

Penn State

Big Ten · 5-4CFP unranked

Penn State is 5-4 and No. 35 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 9.7 points better than an average FBS team. Last game: won 28-25 at Washington in Week 10.

Week 11: vs Minnesota, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit

Machine rankNo. 35of all FBS teams
Rating now9.79.7 points better than an average FBS team
Since July−4.0from 13.7 in the preseason rating

Why Penn State is No. 35

  • Penn State's rating is 9.7: the machine's estimate that Penn State is 9.7 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 35 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at 13.7, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it down 4.0.
  • The biggest weekly moves: −2.9 after Week 4 (L 20-24 vs Wisconsin) and +2.8 after Week 1 (W 45-0 vs Marshall).
  • Its record is 5-4. The 4 losses were to No. 19 USC, No. 31 Wisconsin, No. 36 Michigan, No. 39 Northwestern, by 9.0 points on average. The 5 wins came by 24.4 points on average; the best was over No. 47 Washington. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 63 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 34 Boise State (10.0); just below is No. 36 Michigan (9.6).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Matt Campbell is in his 1st season at Penn State. This season: 5-4.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts176-278
Passing yards2202
Touchdowns-interceptions15-5
Yards per attempt*7.8No. 47 of 138
Explosive pass rate11.6%No. 43 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)5.1%No. 61 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards327-1358
Yards per carry4.2No. 81 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)9.0%No. 132 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)13.8%No. 19 of 138

Scoring

Points per game28.9No. 65 of 138
Yards per play5.90No. 68 of 138
Third-down rate37.7%No. 90 of 138
Red-zone TD rate64.5%No. 51 of 138
Giveaways7No. 22 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game19.3No. 29 of 138
Yards per play allowed5.18No. 38 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed5.4No. 1 of 138
Yards per carry allowed4.8No. 112 of 138
Sack rate4.0%No. 114 of 138
Takeaways14No. 33 of 138
Third-down rate allowed28.2%No. 5 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. Rocco Becht164-261, 2079 yds, 15 TD, 5 INT
  2. Alex Manske9-14, 102 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing

  1. Carson Hansen103 carries, 493 yds, 6 TD
  2. Cam Wallace51 carries, 316 yds, 4 TD
  3. James Peoples57 carries, 246 yds, 2 TD

Receiving

  1. Chase Sowell38 catches, 635 yds, 4 TD
  2. Koby Howard12 catches, 344 yds, 2 TD
  3. Benjamin Brahmer29 catches, 300 yds, 3 TD

Tackles

  1. Tony Rojas66
  2. Kooper Ebel51
  3. Jamison Patton32

Sacks

  1. Tony Rojas5
  2. Yvan Kemajou2.5
  3. Caleb Bacon1

Interceptions

  1. Josiah Zayas2
  2. Tony Rojas2
  3. Bryson Williams1

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. Rocco BechtMost passes in the last game9 games261 attempts94%
  2. Alex Manske2 games14 attempts5%

Carrying

  1. Carson Hansen9 games103 carries41%
  2. James Peoples7 games57 carries23%
  3. Cam Wallace6 games51 carries20%
  4. Quinton Martin Jr.5 games31 carries12%

Catching

  1. Chase Sowell8 games38 catches22%
  2. Andrew Rappleyea8 games30 catches17%
  3. Benjamin Brahmer9 games29 catches16%
  4. Brett Eskildsen8 games25 catches14%

Tackling

  1. Tony Rojas9 games66 tackles13%
  2. Kooper Ebel9 games51 tackles10%
  3. Jamison Patton8 games32 tackles6%
  4. Josiah Zayas8 games25 tackles5%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 W 45–0 vs Marshall. The passing game was the strength: 12.0 yards an attempt, 4.9 more than Marshall usually allows. Won the turnover battle by 2.
  2. Week 2 W 27–9 at Temple. The pass defense was the strength: Temple got 4.9 yards an attempt, 3.5 under what it usually gains.
  3. Week 3 W 55–13 vs Buffalo. The run game was the strength: 7.4 yards a carry, 3.7 more than Buffalo usually allows. Won the turnover battle by 2.
  4. Week 4 L 20–24 vs Wisconsin. The passing game struggled: 3.9 yards an attempt, 2.4 less than Wisconsin usually allows. The machine had Penn State by 13.8 (81%), so this was a loss it did not see coming; Penn State won the turnover battle by 2.
  5. Week 5 L 13–34 at Northwestern. The run defense gave ground: Northwestern got 7.5 yards a carry, 3.4 over what it usually gains. The machine had Penn State by 1.9 (54%), so this was a loss it did not see coming.
  6. Week 6 L 23–31 vs USC. The run game struggled: 2.2 yards a carry, 1.8 less than USC usually allows. The machine had Penn State by 0.9 (53%), so this was a loss it did not see coming.
  7. Week 7 L 18–21 at Michigan. The run defense gave ground: Michigan got 6.0 yards a carry, 2.7 over what it usually gains.
  8. Week 9 W 31–17 vs Purdue. The pass defense was the strength: Purdue got 4.9 yards an attempt, 3.1 under what it usually gains. Won the turnover battle by 2.
  9. Week 10 W 28–25 at Washington. The run defense gave ground: Washington got 5.4 yards a carry, 2.3 over what it usually gains.

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