Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET · Beaver Stadium
Minnesota at Penn State
The machine favors Penn State by 12.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 78% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Penn State No. 35 and Minnesota No. 67, 9.4 points apart; Penn State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Minnesota's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 129 and Penn State's defense against it ranks No. 1, an edge to Penn State's defense.
When Minnesota has the ball
Minnesota's offense against Penn State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Minnesota offense | Penn State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.7No. 94 | 19.3No. 29 | PSU defense |
| Yards per play | 5.0No. 129 | 5.2No. 38 | PSU defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.4No. 126 | 4.8No. 112 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.1No. 129 | 5.4No. 1 | PSU defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.9%No. 103 | 7.6%No. 22 | PSU defense |
When Penn State has the ball
Penn State's offense against Minnesota's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Penn State offense | Minnesota defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.9No. 65 | 22.0No. 46 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 68 | 5.5No. 71 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.2No. 81 | 3.9No. 58 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.8No. 47 | 7.3No. 81 | PSU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.6%No. 43 | 11.6%No. 114 | PSU offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Minnesota
Strengths
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 11Penn State third-down rate: No. 90
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 14Penn State sack rate (defense): No. 114
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 16Penn State giveaways: No. 22
Weak spots
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 129Penn State yards per play allowed: No. 38
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 129Penn State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 1
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 129Penn State third-down rate allowed: No. 5
Penn State
Strengths
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 1Minnesota yards per pass attempt: No. 129
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 5Minnesota third-down rate: No. 129
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 22Minnesota explosive pass rate: No. 103
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 114Minnesota sacks allowed (rate): No. 14
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 112Minnesota yards per carry: No. 126
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 93Minnesota red-zone td rate: No. 113
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Minnesota | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +616 forced, 10 lost | +714 forced, 7 lost |
| Third-down rate | 31.5%No. 129 | 37.7%No. 90 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.0%No. 11 | 28.2%No. 5 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 50.0%No. 113 | 64.5%No. 51 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.3%No. 75 | 63.6%No. 93 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 2.6%No. 14 | 5.1%No. 61 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 6.0%No. 63 | 4.0%No. 114 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Penn State by 9.5 on Nov 9, Penn State by 10.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 1 point toward Penn State.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Penn State by 12.0; the betting line is Penn State by 10.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 38°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Minnesota team page · Penn State team page · All of this week's games