The Machine

Toledo

Mid-American · 7-2CFP unranked

Toledo is 7-2 and No. 89 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 5.1 points below an average FBS team. Last game: won 20-17 at Sacramento State in Week 10.

Week 11: vs Massachusetts, Wednesday, Nov 11: the matchup, unit by unit

Machine rankNo. 89of all FBS teams
Rating now−5.15.1 points below an average FBS team
Since July−2.1from −3.0 in the preseason rating

Why Toledo is No. 89

  • Toledo's rating is −5.1: the machine's estimate that Toledo is 5.1 points worse than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 89 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at −3.0, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it down 2.1.
  • The biggest weekly moves: −3.6 after Week 6 (L 8-23 vs Buffalo) and +2.3 after Week 4 (W 41-16 vs San Diego State).
  • Its record is 7-2. The 2 losses were to No. 58 Michigan State, No. 109 Buffalo, by 12.5 points on average. The 7 wins came by 17.7 points on average; the best was over No. 78 Western Michigan. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 106 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 88 Louisiana (−4.9); just below is No. 90 East Carolina (−5.6).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Mike Jacobs is in his 1st season at Toledo. This season: 7-2.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts185-283
Passing yards2365
Touchdowns-interceptions19-4
Yards per attempt*8.3No. 28 of 138
Explosive pass rate10.7%No. 65 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)2.4%No. 11 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards351-1733
Yards per carry4.9No. 41 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)14.4%No. 58 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)15.5%No. 44 of 138

Scoring

Points per game35.4No. 23 of 138
Yards per play6.48No. 30 of 138
Third-down rate42.9%No. 43 of 138
Red-zone TD rate75.0%No. 10 of 138
Giveaways11No. 72 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game24.4No. 68 of 138
Yards per play allowed4.65No. 14 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed6.0No. 16 of 138
Yards per carry allowed3.2No. 21 of 138
Sack rate6.6%No. 46 of 138
Takeaways12No. 62 of 138
Third-down rate allowed34.1%No. 36 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. John Alan Richter182-276, 2304 yds, 18 TD, 3 INT
  2. Khamoni Robinson2-6, 21 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Rushing

  1. CJ Miller136 carries, 744 yds, 7 TD
  2. Autavius Ison82 carries, 424 yds, 4 TD
  3. Connor Walendzak73 carries, 424 yds, 7 TD

Receiving

  1. Adjatay Dabbs40 catches, 592 yds, 7 TD
  2. Bryson Hammer30 catches, 511 yds, 2 TD
  3. Daryl Barnett Jr.18 catches, 229 yds, 3 TD

Tackles

  1. Isaac Zay71
  2. Julian Fox70
  3. Armorion Smith59

Sacks

  1. Andrew Zock9
  2. Zach Johnson4
  3. Ezra Odinjor3

Interceptions

  1. Isaac Zay2
  2. Israel Petite1
  3. Julian Fox1

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. John Alan RichterMost passes in the last game9 games276 attempts98%
  2. Khamoni Robinson1 game6 attempts2%

Carrying

  1. CJ Miller9 games136 carries42%
  2. Autavius Ison9 games82 carries26%
  3. Connor Walendzak7 games73 carries23%
  4. Noah Sanders2 games10 carries3%

Catching

  1. Adjatay Dabbs8 games40 catches22%
  2. Bryson Hammer8 games30 catches16%
  3. Terrell Crosby Jr.5 games22 catches12%
  4. Sam Lee6 games19 catches10%

Tackling

  1. Isaac Zay9 games71 tackles12%
  2. Julian Fox9 games70 tackles11%
  3. Armorion Smith9 games59 tackles10%
  4. Andrew Zock9 games49 tackles8%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 L 20–30 at Michigan State. The passing game was the strength: 9.3 yards an attempt, 2.3 more than Michigan State usually allows. Its fewest yards a carry of the season.
  2. Week 2 W 63–10 vs Central Connecticut. Central Connecticut is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against.
  3. Week 3 W 49–48 vs Temple. The pass defense was the strength: Temple got 7.1 yards an attempt, 1.0 under what it usually gains. The most yards a carry it has allowed all season.
  4. Week 4 W 41–16 vs San Diego State. The passing game was the strength: 12.9 yards an attempt, 4.6 more than San Diego State usually allows. Won the turnover battle by 2.
  5. Week 5 W 39–24 at Ball State. The passing game struggled: 5.7 yards an attempt, 4.1 less than Ball State usually allows. Won the turnover battle by 2.
  6. Week 6 L 8–23 vs Buffalo. The passing game struggled: 5.6 yards an attempt, 3.0 less than Buffalo usually allows. The machine had Toledo by 14.5 (82%), so this was a loss it did not see coming; Toledo lost the turnover battle by 3.
  7. Week 7 W 34–14 at Eastern Michigan. The run defense was the strength: Eastern Michigan got 1.2 yards a carry, 2.5 under what it usually gains. The defense had 5 sacks.
  8. Week 8 W 45–38 vs Western Michigan. The passing game was the strength: 9.6 yards an attempt, 2.5 more than Western Michigan usually allows.
  9. Week 10 W 20–17 at Sacramento State. The passing game struggled: 3.5 yards an attempt, 4.7 less than Sacramento State usually allows. Its fewest yards an attempt of the season.

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