Week 11 · Wednesday, Nov 11 · 7:30 PM ET · Glass Bowl
Massachusetts at Toledo
Final: Massachusetts 0, Toledo 24.
No pre-game number from the machine for this game: it kicked off before the machine's numbers for the week were frozen.
After Week 10 the machine rates Toledo No. 89 and Massachusetts No. 126, 10.6 points apart; Toledo is at home. The widest gap on the field: Massachusetts's explosive pass rate ranks No. 64 and Toledo's defense against it ranks No. 13, an edge to Toledo's defense.
When Massachusetts has the ball
Massachusetts's offense against Toledo's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Massachusetts offense | Toledo defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.0No. 77 | 24.4No. 68 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 57 | 4.7No. 14 | TOL defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 65 | 3.2No. 21 | TOL defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 57 | 6.0No. 16 | TOL defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.7%No. 64 | 7.2%No. 13 | TOL defense |
When Toledo has the ball
Toledo's offense against Massachusetts's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Toledo offense | Massachusetts defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.4No. 23 | 22.1No. 48 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.5No. 30 | 5.0No. 27 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.9No. 41 | 4.0No. 68 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.3No. 28 | 6.1No. 19 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.7%No. 65 | 7.3%No. 15 | MASS defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Massachusetts
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 15Toledo explosive pass rate: No. 65
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 19Toledo yards per pass attempt: No. 28
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 27Toledo yards per play: No. 30
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 123Toledo third-down rate allowed: No. 36
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 86Toledo red-zone td rate: No. 10
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 77Toledo points allowed per game: No. 68
Toledo
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 10Massachusetts red-zone td rate allowed: No. 86
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 11Massachusetts sack rate (defense): No. 29
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 13Massachusetts explosive pass rate: No. 64
Weak spots
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 72Massachusetts takeaways: No. 42
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 68Massachusetts points per game: No. 77
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 65Massachusetts explosive passes allowed: No. 15
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Massachusetts | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +513 forced, 8 lost | +112 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 33.0%No. 123 | 42.9%No. 43 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.0%No. 56 | 34.1%No. 36 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60.7%No. 72 | 75.0%No. 10 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.1%No. 86 | 57.1%No. 56 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 4.5%No. 47 | 2.4%No. 11 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.3%No. 29 | 6.6%No. 46 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 2 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 11.
- Toledo by 14.5 on Nov 9, Toledo by 14 at the last pull before kickoff (Nov 11).
- It moved 0.5 points toward Massachusetts.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Weather at kickoff (as of Nov 13): 48°F, wind 3 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Massachusetts team page · Toledo team page · All of this week's games