Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Scott Stadium
California at Virginia
The machine favors Virginia by 12.9 (the machine's margin) and gives it 79% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Virginia No. 54 and California No. 96, 10.4 points apart; Virginia is at home. The widest gap on the field: California's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 116 and Virginia's defense against it ranks No. 59, an edge to Virginia's defense.
When California has the ball
California's offense against Virginia's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | California offense | Virginia defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9No. 110 | 23.1No. 55 | UVA defense |
| Yards per play | 5.1No. 122 | 5.5No. 67 | UVA defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.0No. 135 | 4.4No. 92 | UVA defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.4No. 116 | 6.9No. 59 | UVA defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.0%No. 123 | 11.0%No. 103 | Even |
When Virginia has the ball
Virginia's offense against California's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Virginia offense | California defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.9No. 89 | 31.6No. 119 | UVA offense |
| Yards per play | 5.3No. 109 | 6.1No. 113 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.7No. 117 | 5.0No. 118 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.5No. 68 | 7.4No. 86 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.9%No. 105 | 13.7%No. 131 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
California
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 36Virginia sack rate (defense): No. 49
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 38Virginia takeaways: No. 110
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 57Virginia red-zone td rate allowed: No. 97
Weak spots
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 135Virginia yards per carry allowed: No. 92
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 131Virginia explosive pass rate: No. 105
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 123Virginia explosive passes allowed: No. 103
Virginia
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 17California takeaways: No. 75
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 49California sacks allowed (rate): No. 36
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 55California points per game: No. 110
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 134California third-down rate allowed: No. 104
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 132California sack rate (defense): No. 90
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 117California yards per carry allowed: No. 118
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | California | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +110 forced, 9 lost | +39 forced, 6 lost |
| Third-down rate | 35.5%No. 104 | 30.0%No. 134 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.5%No. 104 | 36.6%No. 55 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 62.5%No. 57 | 60.6%No. 75 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%No. 107 | 64.0%No. 97 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 4.0%No. 36 | 9.6%No. 132 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.2%No. 90 | 6.4%No. 49 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Virginia by 12.5 on Nov 9, Virginia by 10.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 2 points toward California.
- Step by step: Virginia by 12.5 → Virginia by 10 → Virginia by 10.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Virginia by 12.9; the betting line is Virginia by 10.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 51°F, wind 13 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Virginia in its second colour on the light page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
California team page · Virginia team page · All of this week's games