The Machine

California

ACC · 3-6CFP unranked

California is 3-6 and No. 96 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 7.7 points below an average FBS team. Last game: lost 31-10 at NC State in Week 9.

Week 11: at Virginia, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit

Machine rankNo. 96of all FBS teams
Rating now−7.77.7 points below an average FBS team
Since July−8.6from 0.9 in the preseason rating

Why California is No. 96

  • California's rating is −7.7: the machine's estimate that California is 7.7 points worse than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 96 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at 0.9, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it down 8.6.
  • The biggest weekly moves: −4.2 after Week 1 (L 24-45 vs UCLA) and −2.4 after Week 7 (L 7-41 vs Wake Forest).
  • Its record is 3-6. The 6 losses were to No. 18 Wake Forest, No. 25 SMU, No. 40 UCLA, No. 41 Clemson, No. 75 NC State, No. 91 UNLV, by 22.8 points on average. The 3 wins came by 16.7 points on average; the best was over No. 49 Virginia Tech. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 50 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 95 Georgia State (−7.2); just below is No. 97 Ohio (−7.8).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Tosh Lupoi is in his 1st season at California. This season: 3-6.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts254-386
Passing yards2478
Touchdowns-interceptions14-6
Yards per attempt*6.4No. 116 of 138
Explosive pass rate8.0%No. 123 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)4.0%No. 36 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards247-745
Yards per carry3.0No. 135 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)8.2%No. 136 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)23.2%No. 133 of 138

Scoring

Points per game21.9No. 110 of 138
Yards per play5.08No. 122 of 138
Third-down rate35.5%No. 104 of 138
Red-zone TD rate62.5%No. 57 of 138
Giveaways9No. 38 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game31.6No. 119 of 138
Yards per play allowed6.09No. 113 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed7.4No. 86 of 138
Yards per carry allowed5.0No. 118 of 138
Sack rate5.2%No. 90 of 138
Takeaways10No. 75 of 138
Third-down rate allowed41.5%No. 104 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele178-264, 1751 yds, 11 TD, 6 INT
  2. Jackson Brousseau75-120, 701 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

Rushing

  1. Adam Mohammed82 carries, 363 yds, 3 TD
  2. Ashten Emory77 carries, 238 yds, 4 TD
  3. Anthony League13 carries, 53 yds, 0 TD

Receiving

  1. Chase Hendricks61 catches, 565 yds, 4 TD
  2. Ian Strong35 catches, 478 yds, 1 TD
  3. Taimane Purcell19 catches, 241 yds, 1 TD

Tackles

  1. Isaiah Crosby50
  2. AJ Tuitele49
  3. Kingston Lopa39

Sacks

  1. AJ Tuitele3
  2. JD McKinley3
  3. Daniel Harris2

Interceptions

  1. Kingston Lopa5
  2. Aiden Manutai1
  3. Isaiah Crosby1

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleMost passes in the last game8 games264 attempts68%
  2. Jackson Brousseau5 games120 attempts31%

Carrying

  1. Adam Mohammed5 games82 carries39%
  2. Ashten Emory9 games77 carries37%
  3. Anthony League5 games13 carries6%
  4. Carson Perry-Smith4 games10 carries5%

Catching

  1. Chase Hendricks9 games61 catches24%
  2. Ian Strong8 games35 catches14%
  3. Mason Mini8 games22 catches9%
  4. Taimane Purcell7 games19 catches7%

Tackling

  1. Isaiah Crosby9 games50 tackles9%
  2. AJ Tuitele9 games49 tackles9%
  3. Kingston Lopa7 games39 tackles7%
  4. Kamar Mothudi9 games37 tackles7%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 L 24–45 vs UCLA. The run defense gave ground: UCLA got 8.7 yards a carry, 3.7 over what it usually gains. Lost the turnover battle by 2.
  2. Week 2 W 21–18 at Syracuse. The passing game struggled: 5.4 yards an attempt, 2.7 less than Syracuse usually allows. Won the turnover battle by 3.
  3. Week 3 W 49–7 vs Wagner. Wagner is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against.
  4. Week 4 L 10–24 vs Clemson. The run defense gave ground: Clemson got 5.2 yards a carry, 1.6 over what it usually gains. The fewest yards an attempt it has allowed all season.
  5. Week 5 L 31–39 at UNLV. The run game struggled: 2.9 yards a carry, 2.5 less than UNLV usually allows.
  6. Week 6 W 25–20 vs Virginia Tech. The pass defense gave ground: Virginia Tech got 9.3 yards an attempt, 1.7 over what it usually gains. The machine had Virginia Tech by 8.9 (71%), so this was a win it did not see coming.
  7. Week 7 L 7–41 vs Wake Forest. The passing game struggled: 4.0 yards an attempt, 2.6 less than Wake Forest usually allows. Its fewest yards an attempt of the season.
  8. Week 8 L 20–59 at SMU. The run game struggled: 1.4 yards a carry, 2.9 less than SMU usually allows. Its fewest yards a carry of the season.
  9. Week 9 L 10–31 at NC State. The passing game struggled: 4.4 yards an attempt, 3.9 less than NC State usually allows.

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