NC State
NC State is 4-5 and No. 75 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 2.9 points below an average FBS team. Last game: lost 41-3 vs Duke in Week 10.
Week 11: vs Syracuse, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit
Why NC State is No. 75
- NC State's rating is −2.9: the machine's estimate that NC State is 2.9 points worse than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 75 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
- It started the season at 3.7, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it down 6.6.
- The biggest weekly moves: −2.7 after Week 1 (L 8-34 at Virginia) and −2.7 after Week 10 (L 3-41 vs Duke).
- Its record is 4-5. The 5 losses were to No. 18 Wake Forest, No. 28 Duke, No. 54 Virginia, No. 55 Vanderbilt, No. 111 Stanford, by 19.0 points on average. The 4 wins came by 26.8 points on average; the best was over No. 27 Louisville. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
- Its FBS opponents so far average No. 62 in the machine's ratings.
- Just above is No. 74 Georgia Tech (−2.9); just below is No. 76 Navy (−3.2).
The rating, week by week
Strengths and weak spots
Head coach
Todd Goebbel is the interim head coach since Oct 24, after Dave Doeren was let go. The team is 4-5 this season.
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
Team stats
Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.
Passing
| Completions-attempts | 185-290 |
|---|---|
| Passing yards | 2180 |
| Touchdowns-interceptions | 15-4 |
| Yards per attempt* | 7.4No. 71 of 138 |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.8%No. 84 of 138 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.2%No. 66 of 138 |
Rushing
| Carries-yards | 321-1303 |
|---|---|
| Yards per carry | 4.1No. 89 of 138 |
| 10-plus-yard runs (rate) | 9.9%No. 129 of 138 |
| Stuffed at or behind the line (rate) | 17.9%No. 81 of 138 |
Scoring
| Points per game | 28.9No. 64 of 138 |
|---|---|
| Yards per play | 5.74No. 84 of 138 |
| Third-down rate | 48.5%No. 18 of 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 64.7%No. 50 of 138 |
| Giveaways | 10No. 51 of 138 |
Defense
| Points allowed per game | 27.6No. 98 of 138 |
|---|---|
| Yards per play allowed | 5.98No. 106 of 138 |
| Yards per pass attempt allowed | 7.2No. 74 of 138 |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.6No. 99 of 138 |
| Sack rate | 3.6%No. 123 of 138 |
| Takeaways | 9No. 103 of 138 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%No. 29 of 138 |
Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
Player leaders
The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).
Passing
- CJ Bailey171-268, 2078 yds, 13 TD, 4 INT
- Tad Hudson3-7, 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
- Will Wilson9-12, 35 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
Rushing
- Davion Gause95 carries, 378 yds, 2 TD
- Jayden Scott67 carries, 377 yds, 4 TD
- Will Wilson46 carries, 179 yds, 8 TD
Receiving
- Keenan Jackson31 catches, 477 yds, 6 TD
- Preston Douglas26 catches, 304 yds, 1 TD
- Joshisa Trader17 catches, 230 yds, 0 TD
Tackles
- Raul Aguirre Jr.85
- Brian Nelson II40
- Ronnie Royal III38
Sacks
- Elijah Satchell5
- Chase Bond1.5
- Harvey Dyson III1.5
Interceptions
- Jaren Sensabaugh2
- Brody Barnhardt1
- Jackson Vick1
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
Who's playing
Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.
Throwing
- CJ BaileyMost passes in the last game9 games268 attempts93%
- Will Wilson3 games12 attempts4%
- Tad Hudson1 game7 attempts2%
Carrying
- Davion Gause8 games95 carries46%
- Jayden Scott6 games67 carries33%
- Darius Johnson4 games12 carries6%
- Dylan McCoy4 games12 carries6%
Catching
- Keenan Jackson8 games31 catches17%
- Preston Douglas8 games26 catches14%
- Davion Gause8 games25 catches14%
- Victor Snow9 games21 catches11%
Tackling
- Raul Aguirre Jr.9 games85 tackles15%
- Brian Nelson II9 games40 tackles7%
- Ronnie Royal III9 games38 tackles7%
- Jackson Vick8 games31 tackles5%
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
The season, week by week
- Week 1 L 8–34 at Virginia. The pass defense gave ground: Virginia got 14.1 yards an attempt, 7.1 over what it usually gains. Lost the turnover battle by 2.
- Week 2 W 73–0 vs Richmond. Richmond is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against.
- Week 3 L 31–35 at Vanderbilt. The run defense gave ground: Vanderbilt got 5.5 yards a carry, 2.6 over what it usually gains.
- Week 4 W 41–31 vs App State. No unit was far from the usual. The biggest gap was the run game: 4.5 yards a carry, 0.6 more than App State usually allows. Its most yards a carry of the season.
- Week 5 W 31–28 vs Louisville. The run defense gave ground: Louisville got 9.2 yards a carry, 3.2 over what it usually gains. The machine had Louisville by 3.3 (58%), so this was a win it did not see coming; NC State won the turnover battle by 2.
- Week 6 L 14–38 vs Wake Forest. The run defense was the strength: Wake Forest got 2.3 yards a carry, 2.8 under what it usually gains. Its fewest yards a carry of the season.
- Week 8 L 28–31 at Stanford. The run defense gave ground: Stanford got 5.3 yards a carry, 2.4 over what it usually gains. The machine had NC State by 9.3 (72%), so this was a loss it did not see coming.
- Week 9 W 31–10 vs California. The run game struggled: 3.4 yards a carry, 1.9 less than California usually allows. The fewest yards an attempt it has allowed all season.
- Week 10 L 3–41 vs Duke. The run game struggled: 1.3 yards a carry, 2.2 less than Duke usually allows.