Duke
Duke is 7-2 and No. 28 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 11.0 points better than an average FBS team. Last game: won 41-3 at NC State in Week 10. The machine gives Duke a 1% chance to make the playoff.
Week 11: at Miami, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit
Why Duke is No. 28
- Duke's rating is 11.0: the machine's estimate that Duke is 11.0 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 28 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
- It started the season at 3.5, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it up 7.5.
- The biggest weekly moves: +2.9 after Week 9 (W 47-2 vs Boston College) and +2.5 after Week 3 (W 35-7 vs Stanford).
- Its record is 7-2. The 2 losses were to No. 30 North Carolina, No. 74 Georgia Tech, by 3.5 points on average. The 7 wins came by 26.7 points on average; the best was over No. 42 Illinois. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
- Its FBS opponents so far average No. 69 in the machine's ratings.
- Just above is No. 27 Louisville (12.1); just below is No. 29 Baylor (10.9).
The rating, week by week
Strengths and weak spots
Head coach
Manny Diaz is in his 3rd season at Duke (since 2024). This season: 7-2. At Duke overall: 25-11, counting this season.
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
Team stats
Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.
Passing
| Completions-attempts | 173-282 |
|---|---|
| Passing yards | 2111 |
| Touchdowns-interceptions | 14-4 |
| Yards per attempt* | 7.5No. 65 of 138 |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.0%No. 37 of 138 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 1.1%No. 2 of 138 |
Rushing
| Carries-yards | 328-1715 |
|---|---|
| Yards per carry | 5.2No. 23 of 138 |
| 10-plus-yard runs (rate) | 16.2%No. 30 of 138 |
| Stuffed at or behind the line (rate) | 17.8%No. 79 of 138 |
Scoring
| Points per game | 33.0No. 36 of 138 |
|---|---|
| Yards per play | 6.33No. 35 of 138 |
| Third-down rate | 42.0%No. 48 of 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 59.0%No. 86 of 138 |
| Giveaways | 5No. 7 of 138 |
Defense
| Points allowed per game | 13.0No. 5 of 138 |
|---|---|
| Yards per play allowed | 4.70No. 16 of 138 |
| Yards per pass attempt allowed | 6.4No. 33 of 138 |
| Yards per carry allowed | 3.0No. 14 of 138 |
| Sack rate | 7.8%No. 16 of 138 |
| Takeaways | 9No. 96 of 138 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 26.7%No. 3 of 138 |
Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
Player leaders
The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).
Passing
- Walker Eget155-246, 1849 yds, 10 TD, 3 INT
- Dan Mahan15-26, 190 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing
- Nate Sheppard191 carries, 1189 yds, 17 TD
- CJ Campbell63 carries, 290 yds, 0 TD
- Jayvian Tanelus30 carries, 156 yds, 2 TD
Receiving
- Jonah Burton26 catches, 351 yds, 1 TD
- Jeremiah Hasley28 catches, 321 yds, 1 TD
- Nate Sheppard32 catches, 306 yds, 4 TD
Tackles
- Nick Morris Jr.51
- DaShawn Stone41
- Luke Mergott38
Sacks
- Kevin O'Connor4.5
- Bradley Gompers4
- Kobe Smith4
Interceptions
- Evan Smith1
- Patrick Smith1
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
Who's playing
Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.
Throwing
- Walker EgetMost passes in the last game9 games246 attempts88%
- Dan Mahan7 games26 attempts9%
Carrying
- Nate Sheppard9 games191 carries65%
- CJ Campbell9 games63 carries21%
- Jayvian Tanelus4 games30 carries10%
- CJ Givers2 games6 carries2%
Catching
- Nate Sheppard9 games32 catches18%
- Jeremiah Hasley8 games28 catches16%
- Jonah Burton9 games26 catches15%
- Jared Richardson7 games19 catches11%
Tackling
- Nick Morris Jr.9 games51 tackles9%
- DaShawn Stone9 games41 tackles7%
- Luke Mergott9 games38 tackles7%
- Andrew Pellicciotta7 games36 tackles6%
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
The season, week by week
- Week 1 W 17–3 vs Tulane. The passing game struggled: 4.7 yards an attempt, 3.6 less than Tulane usually allows. Its fewest yards an attempt of the season.
- Week 2 W 31–27 at Illinois. The passing game was the strength: 9.7 yards an attempt, 2.1 more than Illinois usually allows. Its most yards an attempt of the season.
- Week 3 W 35–7 vs Stanford. The pass defense was the strength: Stanford got 4.4 yards an attempt, 3.0 under what it usually gains. The fewest yards an attempt it has allowed all season.
- Week 4 W 62–7 vs William & Mary. William & Mary is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against.
- Week 6 L 25–28 at Georgia Tech. The run defense gave ground: Georgia Tech got 6.1 yards a carry, 2.5 over what it usually gains. The machine had Duke by 4.2 (60%), so this was a loss it did not see coming.
- Week 7 L 20–24 vs North Carolina. No unit was far from the usual. The biggest gap was the passing game: 6.1 yards an attempt, 0.8 less than North Carolina usually allows. The most yards an attempt it has allowed all season.
- Week 8 W 19–16 at Virginia. The run game struggled: 3.7 yards a carry, 1.0 less than Virginia usually allows. The machine had Virginia by 0.9 (53%), so this was a win it did not see coming.
- Week 9 W 47–2 vs Boston College. The run defense was the strength: Boston College got 2.4 yards a carry, 2.4 under what it usually gains. The defense had 5 sacks.
- Week 10 W 41–3 at NC State. The run game was the strength: 6.8 yards a carry, 2.3 more than NC State usually allows. Its most yards a carry of the season.