Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
Duke at Miami
The machine favors Miami by 16.4 (the machine's margin) and gives it 85% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Miami No. 6 and Duke No. 28, 13.9 points apart; Miami is at home. The widest gap on the field: Duke's explosive pass rate ranks No. 37 and Miami's defense against it ranks No. 84, an edge to Duke's offense.
When Duke has the ball
Duke's offense against Miami's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Duke offense | Miami defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.0No. 36 | 19.2No. 25 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.3No. 35 | 5.2No. 43 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.2No. 23 | 2.5No. 5 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.5No. 65 | 7.2No. 72 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.0%No. 37 | 10.1%No. 84 | DUKE offense |
When Miami has the ball
Miami's offense against Duke's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Miami offense | Duke defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.0No. 1 | 13.0No. 5 | Even |
| Yards per play | 7.5No. 3 | 4.7No. 16 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.3No. 19 | 3.0No. 14 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.8No. 4 | 6.4No. 33 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 14.5%No. 14 | 7.5%No. 18 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Duke
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 2Miami sack rate (defense): No. 48
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 3Miami third-down rate: No. 5
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 5Miami points per game: No. 1
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 96Miami giveaways: No. 14
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 86Miami red-zone td rate allowed: No. 91
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 65Miami yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 72
Miami
Strengths
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 1Duke points allowed per game: No. 5
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 3Duke yards per play allowed: No. 16
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 4Duke yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 33
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 91Duke red-zone td rate: No. 86
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 84Duke explosive pass rate: No. 37
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 82Duke giveaways: No. 7
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Duke | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +49 forced, 5 lost | +410 forced, 6 lost |
| Third-down rate | 42.0%No. 48 | 52.9%No. 5 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 26.7%No. 3 | 37.7%No. 60 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 59.0%No. 86 | 74.5%No. 11 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%No. 34 | 63.6%No. 91 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 1.1%No. 2 | 3.9%No. 33 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.8%No. 16 | 6.4%No. 48 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 6 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Miami by 13.5 on Nov 9, Miami by 13.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has not moved this week.
- A look-ahead line on Sep 2, before this game week, had Miami by 21. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Miami by 16.4; the betting line is Miami by 13.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 67°F, wind 11 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.