The Machine

Wake Forest

ACC · 8-1CFP 13

Wake Forest is 8-1, No. 13 in the CFP rankings, and No. 18 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 15.1 points better than an average FBS team. Last game: won 77-0 vs Merrimack in Week 10. The machine gives Wake Forest a 28% chance to make the playoff.

Week 11: at SMU, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit

Machine rankNo. 18of all FBS teams
Rating now15.115.1 points better than an average FBS team
Since July+11.7from 3.4 in the preseason rating
Playoff chance28%of the machine's simulated seasons

Why Wake Forest is No. 18

  • Wake Forest's rating is 15.1: the machine's estimate that Wake Forest is 15.1 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 18 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at 3.4, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it up 11.7.
  • The biggest weekly moves: +4.3 after Week 5 (W 57-3 vs Stanford) and +2.6 after Week 9 (W 51-7 vs Virginia).
  • Its record is 8-1. The loss was to No. 6 Miami, by 13 points. The 8 wins came by 32.5 points on average; the best was over No. 27 Louisville. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 71 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 17 Iowa (15.1); just below is No. 19 USC (14.3).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Jake Dickert is in his 2nd season at Wake Forest (since 2025). This season: 8-1. At Wake Forest overall: 17-5, counting this season.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts186-270
Passing yards2807
Touchdowns-interceptions22-1
Yards per attempt*10.4No. 2 of 138
Explosive pass rate14.8%No. 13 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)4.6%No. 50 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards320-1582
Yards per carry4.9No. 42 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)14.7%No. 54 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)13.7%No. 18 of 138

Scoring

Points per game43.3No. 4 of 138
Yards per play7.54No. 2 of 138
Third-down rate51.4%No. 9 of 138
Red-zone TD rate73.3%No. 16 of 138
Giveaways3No. 3 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game15.9No. 13 of 138
Yards per play allowed4.45No. 11 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed5.8No. 10 of 138
Yards per carry allowed2.7No. 9 of 138
Sack rate5.5%No. 81 of 138
Takeaways7No. 130 of 138
Third-down rate allowed35.6%No. 43 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. Giovanni Lopez153-228, 2176 yds, 18 TD, 1 INT
  2. Steele Pizzella29-37, 517 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

Rushing

  1. Ty Clark III86 carries, 416 yds, 8 TD
  2. Deuce Lawrence69 carries, 327 yds, 3 TD
  3. Giovanni Lopez76 carries, 318 yds, 6 TD

Receiving

  1. Carlos Hernandez61 catches, 945 yds, 7 TD
  2. Jack Foley28 catches, 557 yds, 4 TD
  3. Kameran Shanks21 catches, 311 yds, 2 TD

Tackles

  1. Vincent Firenze55
  2. Braylon Johnson50
  3. Frank Cusano50

Sacks

  1. Langston Hardy5.5
  2. Gabe Kirschke4
  3. Zach Lohavichan2.5

Interceptions

  1. Braylon Johnson1
  2. Dallas Afalava1
  3. Josh Patterson1

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. Giovanni Lopez8 games228 attempts84%
  2. Steele PizzellaMost passes in the last game4 games37 attempts14%

Carrying

  1. Ty Clark III9 games86 carries39%
  2. Deuce Lawrence9 games69 carries32%
  3. Jamar Searcy7 games28 carries13%
  4. KD Daniels6 games17 carries8%

Catching

  1. Carlos Hernandez8 games61 catches33%
  2. Jack Foley6 games28 catches15%
  3. Kameran Shanks7 games21 catches11%
  4. Antonio Meeks7 games16 catches9%

Tackling

  1. Vincent Firenze9 games55 tackles8%
  2. Braylon Johnson9 games50 tackles7%
  3. Frank Cusano9 games50 tackles7%
  4. Aiden Hall8 games48 tackles7%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 W 38–16 vs Akron. The passing game was the strength: 10.2 yards an attempt, 2.4 more than Akron usually allows. Its most yards a carry of the season.
  2. Week 2 W 38–36 at Purdue. The run game struggled: 4.5 yards a carry, 1.0 less than Purdue usually allows.
  3. Week 3 L 20–33 vs Miami. The pass defense was the strength: Miami got 6.5 yards an attempt, 3.2 under what it usually gains. Its fewest yards an attempt of the season.
  4. Week 4 W 30–27 at Louisville. The run defense was the strength: Louisville got 2.0 yards a carry, 4.9 under what it usually gains. The machine had Louisville by 11.2 (76%), so this was a win it did not see coming.
  5. Week 5 W 57–3 vs Stanford. The pass defense was the strength: Stanford got 4.5 yards an attempt, 2.9 under what it usually gains.
  6. Week 6 W 38–14 at NC State. The run game struggled: 2.3 yards a carry, 2.9 less than NC State usually allows. The fewest yards a carry it has allowed all season.
  7. Week 7 W 41–7 at California. The passing game was the strength: 11.1 yards an attempt, 3.4 more than California usually allows. The fewest yards an attempt it has allowed all season.
  8. Week 9 W 51–7 vs Virginia. The passing game was the strength: 10.9 yards an attempt, 4.1 more than Virginia usually allows.
  9. Week 10 W 77–0 vs Merrimack. Merrimack is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against. Won the turnover battle by 2.

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