Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Wake Forest at SMU
The machine favors Wake Forest by 0.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 51% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Wake Forest No. 18 and SMU No. 25, 2.9 points apart; SMU is at home. The widest gap on the field: SMU's yards per carry ranks No. 68 and Wake Forest's defense against it ranks No. 9, an edge to Wake Forest's defense.
When Wake Forest has the ball
Wake Forest's offense against SMU's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Wake Forest offense | SMU defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.3No. 4 | 22.9No. 53 | WAKE offense |
| Yards per play | 7.5No. 2 | 5.1No. 37 | WAKE offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.9No. 42 | 3.9No. 60 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 10.4No. 2 | 6.2No. 25 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 14.8%No. 13 | 7.3%No. 16 | Even |
When SMU has the ball
SMU's offense against Wake Forest's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | SMU offense | Wake Forest defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.0No. 19 | 15.9No. 13 | Even |
| Yards per play | 7.1No. 8 | 4.5No. 11 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 68 | 2.7No. 9 | WAKE defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.7No. 6 | 5.8No. 10 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 14.8%No. 11 | 4.1%No. 1 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Wake Forest
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 1SMU explosive pass rate: No. 11
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 2SMU yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 25
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 2SMU yards per play allowed: No. 37
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 130SMU giveaways: No. 84
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 81SMU sacks allowed (rate): No. 43
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 50SMU sack rate (defense): No. 18
SMU
Strengths
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 6Wake Forest yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 10
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 8Wake Forest yards per play allowed: No. 11
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 10Wake Forest third-down rate: No. 9
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 119Wake Forest giveaways: No. 3
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 103Wake Forest red-zone td rate: No. 16
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 84Wake Forest takeaways: No. 130
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Wake Forest | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +47 forced, 3 lost | −48 forced, 12 lost |
| Third-down rate | 51.4%No. 9 | 47.7%No. 20 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.6%No. 43 | 29.9%No. 10 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 73.3%No. 16 | 69.8%No. 28 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.2%No. 22 | 65.2%No. 103 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 4.6%No. 50 | 4.2%No. 43 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.5%No. 81 | 7.6%No. 18 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Wake Forest by 1.5 on Nov 9, SMU by 1.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has moved 3 points toward SMU.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 6, before this game week, had Wake Forest by 3. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Wake Forest by 0.5; the betting line is SMU by 1.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 56°F, wind 11 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Wake Forest team page · SMU team page · All of this week's games