Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET · Carter-Finley Stadium
Syracuse at NC State
The machine favors Syracuse by 2.2 (the machine's margin) and gives it 55% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Syracuse No. 60 and NC State No. 75, 4.8 points apart; NC State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Syracuse's points per game ranks No. 60 and NC State's defense against it ranks No. 98, an edge to Syracuse's offense.
When Syracuse has the ball
Syracuse's offense against NC State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Syracuse offense | NC State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.3No. 60 | 27.6No. 98 | SYR offense |
| Yards per play | 5.5No. 98 | 6.0No. 106 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.8No. 109 | 4.6No. 99 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.2No. 83 | 7.2No. 74 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.3%No. 49 | 9.2%No. 55 | Even |
When NC State has the ball
NC State's offense against Syracuse's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | NC State offense | Syracuse defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.9No. 64 | 25.4No. 73 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.7No. 84 | 5.6No. 75 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.1No. 89 | 4.0No. 72 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.4No. 71 | 7.4No. 88 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.8%No. 84 | 10.0%No. 78 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Syracuse
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 28NC State sacks allowed (rate): No. 66
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 48NC State red-zone td rate: No. 50
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 49NC State explosive passes allowed: No. 55
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 123NC State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 123
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 109NC State yards per carry allowed: No. 99
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 98NC State yards per play allowed: No. 106
NC State
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 18Syracuse third-down rate allowed: No. 62
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 29Syracuse third-down rate: No. 77
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 50Syracuse red-zone td rate allowed: No. 48
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 123Syracuse sacks allowed (rate): No. 76
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 123Syracuse red-zone td rate: No. 123
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 106Syracuse yards per play: No. 98
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Syracuse | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | 012 forced, 12 lost | −19 forced, 10 lost |
| Third-down rate | 39.7%No. 77 | 48.5%No. 18 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.9%No. 62 | 33.3%No. 29 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 46.5%No. 123 | 64.7%No. 50 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.8%No. 48 | 71.4%No. 123 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.8%No. 76 | 5.2%No. 66 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.4%No. 28 | 3.6%No. 123 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Syracuse by 3 on Nov 9, Syracuse by 3 now (Nov 12).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Syracuse by 2.2; the betting line is Syracuse by 3.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 50°F, wind 12 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Syracuse team page · NC State team page · All of this week's games